By Jack A. Smith
The White House declared in October that the components of the guerrilla struggle against the U.S. occupation of Iraq consisted of a few thousand "bitter end" Ba'athists and up to 3,000 "foreign terrorists," but these definitions and figures seem more the product of guesswork and propaganda than accurate intelligence.
Even American military leaders in Iraq dispute Washington's claims about the foreign fighters. After interviewing U.S. generals in the field, the New York Times reported Nov. 19 there have been "only modest foreign incursions into Iraq in contrast to the estimate by the Bush administrationŠ [which] has been suggesting that foreign fighters are continuing to enter the country and are behind many of the attacks, linking the war in Iraq to the global campaign against terror."
According to Maj. Gen. Charles Swannack, commander of the 82nd Airborne division, "I want to underscore that most of the attacks on our forces are by former regime loyalists and other Iraqis, not foreign forces." Maj. Gen. David Petraeus, commander of the 101st Airborne echoed his comments, the Times reported.
The guerrilla struggle is getting stronger by the day and it is clear that the fighters ‹ whom President Bush identified Nov. 27 as a "band of thugs and assassins" ‹ include elements motivated by nationalist, progressive and religious beliefs as well as members of the now-banned Ba'athist political party led by former President Saddam Hussein. Even Iraqis who opposed Hussein's regime have joined the struggle. For many Iraqis this is a matter of fighting for national independence and sovereignty against foreign invaders, and they consider themselves patriots.
As opposed to the Vietnam War, the fighters seeking to liberate Iraq from the army of occupation neither possess reliable rear sanctuaries in neighboring areas nor obtain supplies from foreign governments. They also do not have jungles or great mountain ranges in which to hide. But they obviously receive direct or indirect support and protection from masses of Iraqis who are not participating in the armed struggle but who want their country back.
The number of Iraqis who covertly support the resistance struggle cannot be calculated at this time, but it could easily be in the millions. The top secret CIA report that was leaked last month to the Philadelphia Inquirer "warns that growing numbers of Iraqis are concluding the U.S.-led coalition can be defeated and are supporting the insurgents," the newspaper reported Nov. 12.
While it is true that the great bulk of the fighters are Sunni Muslims, the Shi'ite Muslims ‹ who generally applauded the downfall of the Ba'athist government ‹ have no love for the U.S. invaders. A leading Shia, who was imprisoned under the previous government, put it this way to the Financial Times Nov. 28: "We don't support the U.S., but for now it is not our enemy, butŠ things could change."
The Shi'ites are holding back because they expect that a large portion of political power in Iraq will soon be theirs since they constitute 60-65% of the population. When this power is obtained, they expect the U.S. to withdraw with all due haste. If the Bush administration attempts to deprive them of power commensurate to their numbers, or refuses to decamp at the assigned time, there is little doubt the Shia will react decisively and with force ‹ a prospect that causes nightmares in the White House.
Washington also claims that the attacks against U.S. are taking place almost entirely in the so-called Sunni Triangle, where the bulk of Arab Sunnis live in the center of the country, but according to a number of recent news reports about 40% of the attacks occurred in the Arab Shi'ite south and to a lesser degree in the Kurdish Sunni northern region.
The Boston Globe reported Nov. 29, "since May, when major combat operations were declared over, a total of 2,227 guerrilla attacks took place in the Sunni Triangle [as of Nov. 24, while] the rest of the country has had 1,416 attacks, most of them against occupation forces." The low-intensity guerrilla campaign that emerged in June has metamorphosed into a mid- to high-intensity war against a greatly superior foe in less than six months, an amazing development.
The Bush administration has responded with an accelerated campaign of military violence and mass arrests in hopes of destroying the national liberation struggle before it scuttles President Bush's hopes of reelection next year.
A fascinating insight into an aspect of the guerrilla war was provided Dec. 3 in Asia Times online, written by B. Raman, the former head of the counter-terrorism division of the RAW, India's foreign intelligence agency (which mainly focuses on Pakistan) and now director of the Institute for Topical Studies in Chennai, his country's fourth largest city. In the article Raman writes from an Indian/South Asian perspective and does not put forward a particular point of view about the just or unjust nature of the U.S. invasion.
He estimates that the core of the armed resistance is composed of some 6,000 indigenous guerrillas and about 320 foreign fighters, "who have been waging a two-front jihad against the occupation troops." (The term "jihad," which basically means the struggle against religious unbelief, also has several other definitions. It can mean humankind's battle against sin. It can further mean military action of a religious or secular kind.)
Raman's article suggests that the Iraqi fighters are waging a nationalist armed struggle against the occupation, while the foreign fighters may be fighting a jihad on behalf of their version of Islam against a rampaging army of unbelievers invading a Muslim country. He argues that the Iraqi fighters are not terrorists by any means, but describes the non-Iraqis as "mujahideen" who have carried out terrorist actions, although President Ronald Reagan called them "freedom fighters" when they did the CIA's bidding in Afghanistan,1979-95. He continued:
"The Iraqi resistance fighters have been attacking American troops and their Iraqi collaborators. The foreign mujahideen have been targeting nationals of countries that have been collaborating with the U.S. and international organizations. There is so far no evidence of a common mastermind guiding the activities of the indigenous and the external.
"The jihad of the indigenous fighters has been targeted and well planned, avoiding innocent Iraqi civilian casualties. They are well organized and seem to have better intelligence [information] than the American troopsŠ. The jihad of the foreign mujahideen has been ruthless with indiscriminate use of explosive devices and suicide bombers."
The former counter-terrorism official maintains that while some older "jihad-hardened" Islamic extremist fighters have joined the fight in Iraq, "very few post-2001 new recruits are prepared to go to Iraq. They prefer to fight the American troops in Afghanistan by joining the Taliban and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's Hizb-e-Islami. As a result, the number of foreign jihadis active against the U.S .troops in Iraq has remained at about 320 for some weeks now. Media reports of hundreds of jihadis being recruited in different countries and sent to Iraq are not corroborated by ground intelligence. U.S. troops continue to be handicapped by the scarcity of precise intelligence about the nature of the enemy, its motivation and capability. As a result, they have been literally hitting out in the dark, not knowing whether those targeted by them are friends or foes. This is another reason for the large civilian casualties."
At this stage, very little is known about the Iraqi resistance ‹ a tribute to the extraordinarily effective secrecy that the guerrillas and their many civilian supporters must maintain to survive against the most powerful military force in the world. With all its spies, satellites, technology, bribes and brutality, Washington has no idea who is actually leading this struggle, where the guerrillas are hiding and where they will strike next. in Iraq dispute Washington's claims about the foreign fighters. After interviewing U.S. generals in the field, the New York Times reported Nov. 19 there have been "only modest foreign incursions into Iraq in contrast to the estimate by the Bush administrationŠ [which] has been suggesting that foreign fighters are continuing to enter the country and are behind many of the attacks, linking the war in Iraq to the global campaign against terror."
According to Maj. Gen. Charles Swannack, commander of the 82nd Airborne division, "I want to underscore that most of the attacks on our forces are by former regime loyalists and other Iraqis, not foreign forces." Maj. Gen. David Petraeus, commander of the 101st Airborne echoed his comments, the Times reported.
The guerrilla struggle is getting stronger by the day and it is clear that the fighters ‹ whom President Bush identified Nov. 27 as a "band of thugs and assassins" ‹ include elements motivated by nationalist, progressive and religious beliefs as well as members of the now-banned Ba'athist political party led by former President Saddam Hussein. Even Iraqis who opposed Hussein's regime have joined the struggle, the main thrust of which is to oust the invasion force and eliminate the prospect of continual U.S. domination. For many Iraqis this is a matter of fighting for national independence and sovereignty against foreign invaders, and they consider themselves patriots.
As opposed to the Vietnam War, the fighters seeking to liberate Iraq from the army of occupation neither possess reliable rear sanctuaries in neighboring areas nor obtain supplies from foreign governments. They also do not have jungles or great mountain ranges in which to hide. But they obviously receive direct or indirect support and protection from masses of Iraqis who are not participating in the armed struggle but who want their country back.
The number of Iraqis who covertly support the resistance struggle cannot be calculated at this time, but it could easily be in the millions. The top secret CIA report that was leaked last month to the Philadelphia Inquirer "warns that growing numbers of Iraqis are concluding the U.S.-led coalition can be defeated and are supporting the insurgents," the newspaper reported Nov. 12. Many are further motivated by anger and disgust at the deportment and violence of the occupying force and the chaos and privation that has ensued under the inept and blundering governance of the ruling Coalition Provisional Authority.
While it is true that the great bulk of the fighters are Sunni Muslims, the Shi'ite Muslims ‹ who generally applauded the downfall of the Ba'athist government ‹ have no love for the U.S. invaders. A leading Shia, who was imprisoned under the previous government, put it this way to the Financial Times Nov. 28: "We don't support the U.S., but for now it is not our enemy, butŠ things could change."
The Shi'ites are holding back because they anticipate a large portion of political power in Iraq will soon be theirs since they constitute 60-65% of the population. When this power is obtained, they expect the U.S. to withdraw totally with all due haste. If the Bush administration attempts to deprive them of power commensurate to their numbers (including a major role in a new permanent government and its policies), or refuses to decamp at the assigned time, there is little doubt the Shia will react with decisive force ‹ a prospect that causes nightmares in the White House.
Washington claims that the attacks against U.S. are taking place almost entirely in the so-called Sunni Triangle, where the bulk of Arab Sunnis live in the center of the country, but according to a number of recent news reports about 40% of the attacks occurred in the Arab Shi'ite south and to a lesser degree in the Kurdish Sunni northern region.
The Boston Globe reported Nov. 29, "since May, when major combat operations were declared over, a total of 2,227 guerrilla attacks took place in the Sunni Triangle [as of Nov. 24, while] the rest of the country has had 1,416 attacks, most of them against occupation forces." The low-intensity guerrilla campaign that emerged in June has metamorphosed into a mid- to high-intensity war against a greatly superior foe in less than six months, an amazing development.
The Bush administration has responded with an accelerated campaign of military violence and mass arrests in hopes of destroying the national liberation struggle before it scuttles President Bush's hopes of reelection next year. Since invading Iraq nine months ago, most of Washington's plans have gone awry. Should this continue, the White House may well decide to shelve its ambition to thoroughly control Iraq for years to come as part of its expressed endeavor to politically reorganize the entire Middle East under U.S. hegemony.
A fascinating insight into an aspect of the guerrilla war was provided Dec. 3 in Asia Times online, written by B. Raman, the former head of the counter-terrorism division of the RAW, India's foreign intelligence agency (which mainly focuses on Pakistan) and now director of the Institute for Topical Studies in Chennai, his country's fourth largest city. In the article Raman writes from an Indian/South Asian perspective and does not put forward a particular point of view about the just or unjust nature of the U.S. invasion.
He estimates that the core of the armed resistance is composed of some 6,000 indigenous guerrillas and about 320 foreign fighters, "who have been waging a two-front jihad against the occupation troops." (The term "jihad," which basically means the struggle against religious unbelief, also has several other definitions. It can mean humankind's battle against sin. It can further mean military action of a religious or secular kind.)
Raman's article suggests that the Iraqi fighters are waging a nationalist armed struggle against the occupation, while the foreign fighters may be fighting a jihad on behalf of their version of Islam against a rampaging army of unbelievers invading a Muslim country. He argues that the Iraqi fighters are not terrorists by any means, but describes the non-Iraqis as "mujahideen" who carry out terrorist actions, although President Ronald Reagan called them "freedom fighters" when they did the CIA's bidding in Afghanistan from1979 to 1992, when the progressive government in Kabul was finally overthrown. He continued:
"The Iraqi resistance fighters have been attacking American troops and their Iraqi collaborators. The foreign mujahideen have been targeting nationals of countries that have been collaborating with the U.S. and international organizations. There is so far no evidence of a common mastermind guiding the activities of the indigenous and the external.
"The jihad of the indigenous fighters has been targeted and well planned, avoiding innocent Iraqi civilian casualties. They are well organized and seem to have better intelligence [information] than the American troopsŠ. The jihad of the foreign mujahideen has been ruthless with indiscriminate use of explosive devices and suicide bombers."
The former counter-terrorism official maintains that while some older "jihad-hardened" Islamic extremist fighters have joined the fight in Iraq, "very few post-2001 new recruits are prepared to go to Iraq. They prefer to fight the American troops in Afghanistan by joining the Taliban and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's Hizb-e-Islami. As a result, the number of foreign jihadis active against the U.S .troops in Iraq has remained at about 320 for some weeks now. Media reports of hundreds of jihadis being recruited in different countries and sent to Iraq are not corroborated by ground intelligence. U.S. troops continue to be handicapped by the scarcity of precise intelligence about the nature of the enemy, its motivation and capability. As a result, they have been literally hitting out in the dark, not knowing whether those targeted by them are friends or foes. This is another reason for the large civilian casualties."
At this stage, very little is known about the Iraqi resistance ‹ a tribute to the extraordinarily effective secrecy that the guerrillas and their many civilian supporters must maintain to survive against the most powerful military force in the world. With all its spies, satellites, technology, bribes and brutality, Washington has no idea who is actually leading this struggle, where the guerrillas are hiding and where they will strike next.