In the end, there were some surprises. The fact that United Russia won a lion share of the votes was not one of them. Zhirinovsky’s Liberal Democratic Party of Russia and Glazyev’s Rodina, according to exit polls, exceeded the expectations of all forecasts (including mine). Voter turn out was poor – as expected.
The Communist Party and SPS were the real losers. The Kremlin’s “black PR” against the Communists has paid dividends – obviously benefiting Rodina. A very discouraged Chubais and Nemtsov have all but conceded. Yavlinsky is still unsure if Yabloko passed the 5 percent threshold.
Without official results, one thing appears to be clear: the electorate has shown a strong preference for perceived “leftist-patriotic” candidates and parties beyond United Russia.
Given that the LDPR more often than not supports the Kremlin’s political line and Rodina’s all but obvious ties to the presidential administration, the forces surrounding Putin can claim an outstanding victory.
However, the Kremlin’s victory presents Putin a new, and maybe more complex, political reality. The Zhirinovsky-Glazyev success is a reflection of the very real rage found in the Russian body politic twelve years after the collapse of the Soviet Union. How Putin will manage United Russia (non-ideological, statist, power-orientated), Rodina (demanding prison-sentences for those involved in the privatizations of the 1990s), and the LDPR (officially against anything that has to do with the status quo) is open to question. However, it would seem that political debate, if there will be any, is now completely under Kremlin control – meaningful opposition has come to an end.
One thing is for sure: all the Russians I know are just glad the election is over!
Exit Poll Results (average of numerous) in percent as of 2300 MTS:
United Russia 34-39
Communist Party 9-14
LDPR 11-14
Rodina 9-11
SPS 3-4
Yabloko 4-3
Against All 7
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