By Pavel Felgenhauer
The parliamentary elections -- marred by accusations of fraud and by large numbers of disgruntled citizens voting "against all" -- have decisively changed the face of Russian politics. The new Duma will be dominated by pro-fascist nationalist factions and by United Russia, a party of "statists" and bureaucrats who use nationalistic slogans.
Nationalism in Russia is always linked with a desire to build (or rebuild) a "Great Russia" with a powerful military that resembles the force that terrified the West for decades. Nationalistic, "statist" rhetoric has clearly helped win this election and will certainly be extensively used to re-elect Vladimir Putin as president in March...
In many respects, today's Russia is like rump Yugoslavia under the rule of Slobodan Milosevic: a failed, totally corrupt nationalistic police state that was unsuccessfully fighting endless wars to build a "Greater Serbia." Milosevic, an outspoken nationalist, was spending money to prop up special police and other paramilitaries he believed to be loyal, while the Yugoslav armed forces were collapsing.
With fascists and nationalistic statists dominating the Duma and the Kremlin, it is virtually inevitable that Russia will attempt to dominate the post-Soviet landmass -- installing pro-Moscow governments, destabilizing those that refuse to integrate and annexing neighboring territories.
This "Great Russia" project will fulfill the popular nationalist dream of reuniting all Russian-speaking populations in one realm -- a reconstructed rump Soviet Union. The same process will also create a new entity, of which Putin can become head after his constitutional term as president ends in 2008.
In the new political situation, there is zero possibility of any meaningful political settlement in Chechnya. The decaying Russian military will continue an endless fray in the Caucasus and also may be involved in other hopeless adventures. The inevitable casualties will be covered up by the relentless propaganda that has become our media's trademark.
Pavel Felgenhauer is an independent defense analyst.
-- Michael Pugliese American imperialism has been made plausible and attractive in part by the insistence that it is not imperialistic. Harold Innis, 1948 http://www.monthlyreview.org/sr2004.htm