Al Hunt, Wall Street Journal, December 14, 2003
The capture of Saddam Hussein is a shot in the arm politically for President Bush and poses a dicey dilemma for Democrats, particularly for front-running presidential candidate Howard Dean.
Republicans were universally euphoric over the news that broke early Sunday morning. The response of some Democrats was more nuanced, even equivocating: It's great the dictator is in custody, but that doesn't change the long-term problems.
Undeniably, in the short term, critics of the Iraq war are on the defensive.
"This validates what George Bush has been saying," said Democratic pollster Peter Hart. "The president needed a scalp … that's what his father failed to get."
Conversely, the event "is confusing to Democrats," argued Republican strategist Vin Weber. "This is great news. But the opposition to the Iraq war in the Democratic party is pretty deep." Moreover, he says, it removes the Democrats' "powerful" line that the administration "can't even get Saddam." DOW JONES REPRINTSThis copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. To order presentation-ready copies for distribution to your colleagues, clients or customers, use the Order Reprints tool at the bottom of any article or visit: www.djreprints.com. • See a sample reprint in PDF format • Order a reprint of this article now.
How it all shakes out politically will depend on what occurs in Iraq.
If this breaks the spirit of the resistance and reduces the attacks against Americans, it will be a tremendous boost for the president and raise serious questions about Howard Dean, politicians on both sides of the aisle said.
But if it doesn't alter the violence against Americans, if the thorny problems of an expensive reconstruction persist, and if despite Mr. Hussein's capture, few weapons of mass destruction turn up, the Bush boost will be ephemeral, and the effects on Dr. Dean uncertain.
In an interesting coincidence, Dr. Dean is to give one of his first major foreign-policy speeches Monday in Los Angeles, with a heavy focus on the international battle against terrorism. He apparently has been hoping to position himself more in the political center on national-security issues; the calculation being that this will be acceptable to his fervently antiwar base and put him in better shape for a general election battle against Mr. Bush.
The Republicans–and Dr. Dean's Democratic opponents–argue that's a pipe dream. If Dr. Dean "had his way, Saddam Hussein would still be in power today, not in prison," rival Democratic candidate Sen. Joe Lieberman, charged Sunday morning.
Yet, others noted, the activist anti-Bush democrats who will turn out in the initial Iowa caucuses and then the New Hampshire primary–where Dr. Dean has a humongous lead–may be largely unaffected by the Hussein capture. Thus, one leading Democrat who isn't involved in any of the campaigns, sees a political nightmare: "It helps Dean get the nomination and kills him in the general election. I can just see the Bush commercials now."
Even if it's not that clear cut, it's still uncertain who might achieve any comparative advantage in the Democratic contest: Mr. Lieberman or Rep. Dick Gephardt–who have been the most avowed Democratic supporters of the war–or former Gen. Wesley Clark or Sen. John Kerry–who brandish the most notable national-security credentials.
The Clark situation is especially intriguing as privately, more Democrats see this political neophyte, who has been a critic of the Bush Iraq policy, as the best alternative in a general election. The general, who was in Europe Sunday, put out a statement praising the capture and the American forces that conducted it.
But little of this conjecture mattered Sunday to Republicans. Sunday morning's news only enhanced their near certainty that Mr. Bush is a prohibitive favorite for reelection. Saturday night at his Christmas party–before the capture was public–the sometime dour Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, reportedly smiled throughout the evening.
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