[lbo-talk] More Iraqi debt restructuring, query about Doug's trip

Michael Pollak mpollak at panix.com
Tue Dec 23 21:05:47 PST 2003


On Tue, 23 Dec 2003, Daniel Davies wrote:


> > Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the head of the American-backed Governing
> > Council, said talks with President Vladimir V. Putin led Russia to
> > propose wiping away 65 percent of Iraq's Soviet-era debts to Moscow in
> > return for Baghdad's favorable treatment of Russian oil and other
> > companies.
>
> This is exactly what I was worrying about. If this sort of
> horse-trading and side-dealing becomes par for the course in Paris Club
> deals (which it decidedly is not at present), it can't be anything but
> bad news for the Third World.

Could you expand on that, DD? From your lucid precis:

URL: http://www.crookedtimber.org/archives/001041.html

it seems easier to see the downsides than the upsides: that conditionality means you can't get debt forgiveness without an IMF austerity program; and that consensus means things take forever, and you'll never get better terms than you worst enemy agrees to (which in this case, with Kuwait sitting in, is quite a problem.)

So what are the upsides that we should be sorry to see go? You mention "minimizing free riding by creditors" but I'm not sure what you're getting at.

Also, is it certain that Iraq won't be just treated as a one-off?

And lastly, just out of curiousity, do you see any downside to this particular trade, or this sort of trading, in Iraq's case? Doesn't it put Iraq in position where it can demand substanial debt forgiveness for any country whose companies want a piece of the oil action -- and get them to compete as to who will forgive more?

Michael



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