RES: [lbo-talk] Recent Growth & Bush's Economic Policy

Alexandre Fenelon afenelon at zaz.com.br
Wed Dec 24 09:38:53 PST 2003


Any estimates available for such global transfers? Also note that the US corporate profitability actually declined between 97-01. (See responses from Jim [D] and Doug)

-No. There was capital flight from FSU (a few hundreds of billions, maybe Chris Doss has additional data), Brazil run a current account defict close to 20-40 billions from 1996-2001 (most of it capital tranfers), and there was a lerge increase in 3rd world debt.

China's financial liberalisation may be limited, but the access to North American and Japanese markets that China gets is unprecedented. China's trade surplus with the US this year will be $120 bn.

-Agree

This is almost 25% of India's GDP. IMO China's is a good example of Imperialism actively promoting rapid capital accumulation in a developing economy.

-Provided the developing economy is able to keep its economy regulated and protect itself from the risks of finacial liberalization, a policy that few developing countries can afford to follow.

I don't know if Roach's estimates of growth are derived on the PPP basis.

-Certainly they can´t be

Even your estimate of 50% is higher than the US share (32%) global GDP.

-Agree. There is no doubt the USA had better performance than the world average

Dollar hegemony can not be sustained merely by the capacity to print $. Surely it must ultimately be based on the quality and volume of productive capital deployed, i.e. the rate and volume of surplus value created and reinvested.

-Agree, and there is a risk the dollar hegemony will be lost because of these factors you´re mentioning. The growing weakness of dollar may point to the fact the expansionist monetary policies are reaching their limits (on the other hand, it´s possible those policies won´t have a limit? Will the USA be able to run twin deficits of 10% GDP each?)

Alexandre

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