In preparing for the election race, the right wing parties and the centrists, claiming to form a constructive parliamentary majority, are not in their best form. Results of the latest polls prompt the idea of a communist comeback in the Duma. The electoral rating of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) is steady at over 20%, whereas something odd is happening to the rating of the "ruling party", United Russia. The latest nationwide survey done by the Public Opinion Foundation (FOM) promises United Russia the votes of 26% of Russians, 22% being reserved for the CPRF. Meanwhile, according to the express-survey done simultaneously by the All-Russian Centre for Public Opinion Research (VCIOM), at a hypothetical election to the lower house of the parliament the CPRF would gain the bigger number of votes - 24%, while United Russia could count only on 14% of votes.
At the same time, according to FOM, only four parties will be able to get over the 5% barrier at the election to the Duma - United Russia, the CPRF, Liberal-Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), and Yabloko, the two latter to encounter great troubles on that way. VCIOM promises Duma mandates to five parties - the CPRF, United Russia, Yabloko (8%), the LDPR (6%), and the Union of Right Forces (5%). Somehow or other, the situation is not that joyful for the ruling party. Even if the optimistic 26% are to be trusted, under the FOM- promised alignment United Russia will gave to spent a lot of efforts to attract allies (from among single-member constituency deputies) with whom it would be possible to form a qualified parliament majority. In fact, there is no one to make blocs with for the communists either (of course, unless the old trick is made again, with the separation of a group of agrarians from their own ranks), but this is only another proof that the new Duma will more likely face political combats, than constructive work.
Internal organizational squabbles, another redistribution of senior posts noticeably shook the positions of United Russia. The conscription of Interior Minister Boris Gryzlov to party building has not yet altered the state of affairs. There were no other visible events in the party life of United Russia. So the party seems to be coming to a conclusion that the administrative resource is incapable of making up for the absence of an ideological floor. The adoption of this document will be the principal item on the agenda of the party congress scheduled for March 29. "For us it is important that every Russian citizen know what this party is, what it handles, its main goals and attitudes," General Council member Vyacheslav Volodin remarked. Well, better later than never. It is in itself amusing though how the party which has reasons to call itself ruling had all that time managed to get by without an ideological floor and to draw new and new supporters to its ranks who were poorly aware of what the party "goals and attitudes" consisted in.
The CPRF has everything in order with its ideological floor. The communists do not either suffer the absence of political initiatives. Having been flunked with the nationwide referendum on land and utilities reform, the communists are arranging a new plebiscite. In the next few days a canvass of signatures is to be launched in different Russian regions among deputies of legislatures and members of various political parties for a demand to pass a no-confidence vote to the government of Mikhail Kasianov. Together with the National- Patriotic Union of Russia (NPSR), the CPRF is preparing a number of large-scale public and political protest events. "A major event will take place on February 15 against chaos in the economy and war on Iraq; on February 23 we will hold a rally in support of Russian science and the defense sector; in late March - a nationwide protest campaign for the protection of citizens' social rights," Gennady Zyuganov promised. Against the background of the actually complete absence of initiatives on the part of the ruling party, the political activity of the CPRF looks impressive. However, the patriotic opposition is also being torn apart with serious inside discrepancies on the verge of elections that to a certain extent resemble the situation in United Russia. The CPRF leadership suspects the Executive Committee head of the friendly NPSR, Duma Vice-Speaker Gennady Semigin, of cooperation with the Kremlin. A scandalous article was published in a Zyuganov-controlled leftist newspaper in which Semigin was openly called a "spook" of the Kremlin and charged with undermining the unity of the left wing opposition and attempts to buy the party. Taking into account that the financing of local CPRF structures is carried out through the NPSR Executive Committee and that Semigin has a lot of supporters among regional committee chairpersons, Zyuganov will hardly be able to resolve that conflict with few casualties. It is not ruled out that the communists too will have to call up a congress to decide on personnel matters on the brink of elections. Another sorting out of relationships in the leadership of the left wing opposition and mutual slander will not add scores to them. However, it is also unlikely to shake their positions too strongly: the communist electorate is steadfast and accustomed to "deviations" and "anti-party groups" of all sorts.
No special innovations ought to be expected in the election strategy of the CPRF apparently. The communist party will as usual stake on hard criticism of the power, first of all the government, charging it of the inability to solve the country's pressing problems. Apparently, United Russia will try to play on the same field, but their positions will be more constructive. Kasianov's cabinet will be having a hard time under the cross-criticism. In the Duma, the communists and United Russia people are sure to compete in pushing through populist laws during the pre-election parliament session.
It is clear that to win over the CPRF United Russia needs new and effective election moves. The tactic of pressing the communist party to the roadside of political life, attempts to split the leftist electorate via creation of political structures alternative to the CPRF like Gennady Seleznev's Revival Party of Russia have not succeeded yet.
Sure enough, the most effective move would be to draw President Vladimir Putin to the party ranks. However, even the United Russia people themselves have little hope for that prospect. The initiative with employing the cabinet in the party is most likely doomed for failure as well - the example of Interior Minister Boris Gryzlov did not turn out to be appealing for his colleagues. On top of that, a similar personnel addition would tie the hands of United Russia, depriving it of the opportunity to criticize the government from populist positions. Apparently they will have to confine themselves to employing eminent figures of culture and art in party propaganda. But the competition will add this method to its arsenals as well, and only time will tell who will outsing and outdance whom.
Following formal logic, the ruling party ought to undertake responsibility for reforms going on in the country. However, the same United Russia spent a lot of efforts in the Duma to put off reform of the housing and utilities sector and RAO UES of Russia, and in every possible way tried to prevent the Duma from the discussion of the ways to settle the situation in Chechnya. Foreign policy with patriotic slogans like "Hands off Iraq!" remains nearly the only platform for propaganda. However, the United Russia people are here no competition to the communists and especially the LDPR, either.
In short, the party leadership will have to think a lot over the election strategy. And the Kremlin over the strategy of party building in general. The practice of creation of ruling parties for an hour, capable of winning only one election and loudly flunking at the next, does not justify itself, experience shows. It is not either ruled out that in the present shortage of time the Kremlin might take extraordinary steps, correcting its party preferences and insuring the United Russia people with other parties of the centrist and rightist sort. It would be a risk to put all eggs in one basket. (Translated by P. Pikhnovsky)