Sunday, Feb 09, 2003
Arabs fear war will unsettle region
By Atul Aneja
MANAMA (BAHRAIN) FEB. 8. As the possibility of the United States invading Iraq increases, the Arab world has begun to agonise over the fundamental political transformation that the region is likely to witness after this war.
Unlike the first Persian Gulf War, which was to restore the status quo in the region after Iraq had invaded Kuwait, the U.S. mission in Iraq this time, in case it materialises, is aimed to achieve exactly the opposite - to alter the status quo, a diplomatic source said.
The Arab intelligentsia, by and large, is convinced that the U.S. is invading Iraq not just for its oil or for ridding it of its mass destruction. Apart from getting hold of Iraqi oil, the U.S., after entrenching itself physically in Iraq, will begin to change the political landscape of the region that was defined after the World War I break-up of the Ottoman empire, and, in Iraq's case, anchored in the Anglo-French Sykes Picot pact and the San Remo treaty of 1920.
"Washington intends to transform Mesopotamia (former Iraq) into a bridgehead for redrawing all the contours of West Asia, be they political, economic, ideological or cultural", says a commentary in the UAE daily Al Khaleej. The daily adds that this latter objective is likely to be upgraded in importance "immediately after the mission is accomplished in Baghdad, due to a combination of logistical, security, strategic and political considerations".
Not surprisingly, more than the U.S. Secretary of State, Colin Powell's address to the United Nations Security Council where he made out a case against Iraq, his remarks that "success" in Iraq could "fundamentally reshape" the region "in a powerful, positive way that will enhance U.S. interests" has made big news in the Arab world. By "reshaping", writes the pan-Arab Al-Quds al-Arabi, Gen. Powell could mean many things, such as "drawing new geographical and demographic maps, partition along racial and ethnic lines, and nurturing the emergence of brand-new entities, just as the Sykes-Picot and San Remo agreements did during World War I." Among the countries of the region, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Lebanon apprehend that they could be affected most soon after a U.S.-backed post-Saddam dispensation takes over in Baghdad. Saudi Arabia feels extremely vulnerable as it apprehends that the Bush administration will keep it in focus till the time it undergoes a fundamental political change, in a manner that would satisfy Washington that it no longer can become a breeding ground for hardened extremists.
Syria, according to analysts, fears that it will be surrounded by U.S. forces once they enter and position themselves in neighbouring Iraq. With the U.S. at its doorstep and Israel on the other, the pressure on it to wind up anti-Israel Hezbollah offices will escalate.
The U.S., analysts say, finds Iran "too complex" and is likely to deal with it differently. According to some Arab intellectuals, Saudi Arabia's ultimate nightmare scenario is to witness its three-way partition in what has been described by commentators as the Woolsey Plan, named after the former CIA Director, James Woolsey. Under this plan, the Saudi Kingdom could be divided into three separate states: Hejaz, Najd and the oil-rich Shia eastern province of Ihsa.
Since Ihsa would have most of the oil, but would be too small to defend itself, it could become a virtual U.S. protectorate on the lines of Kuwait. There are two other lines of thinking related to Iraq. First, there are those who are of the view that Arab people have been let down by their Governments. Therefore, the U.S. moves in Iraq and the region can only be beneficial, as they will change the status quo.
Second, there is recognition that the U.S. intervention in Iraq will cause political convulsions in the region and encourage terrorism. But, U.S. dominance of the region would undermine Israel's importance and encourage the emergence of an independent Palestinian state.
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