[On closer inspection, what it looks like is happening it that most people support a war "in principle," i.e., if inspections don't work. I think these people have been counted as "supporting war." But in fact, they support extending inspections. In other words, their position is almost exactly the same as the French government's.]
[*Except* for one last thing: most Americans only support war if there is no occupation -- which is impossible. Or if possible, a disaster. That sounds believable and should be scary for both opponents and proponents. In a best case scenario, it would give the White House pause because it would imply that two years from now an occupied Iraq would lose him the White House. In a worst case scenario, it would lead to Iraq quickly being fobbed off with the same shambolic jury-rigged operation that we're running in Afghanistan, threatening something truly disastrous.]
New York Times February 14, 2003
Poll Finds Most in U.S. Support Delaying a War
By PATRICK E. TYLER and JANET ELDER
E ven after the administration's aggressive case for going to war soon
in Iraq, a majority of Americans favor giving United Nations weapons
inspectors more time to complete their work so that any military
operation wins the support of the Security Council, the latest New
York Times/CBS News Poll shows.
The public supports a war to remove Saddam Hussein. But Americans are
split over whether the Bush administration and Secretary of State
Colin L. Powell have made a convincing case for going to war right
now, even though much of the public is inclined to believe that Iraq
and Al Qaeda are connected in terrorism.
The poll found that while the economy still commands the greatest
concern among Americans, the prospect of combat in Iraq, fear of
terrorism and the North Korean nuclear standoff are stirring
additional anxieties.
These worries may be taking a toll on Mr. Bush's support. His overall
job approval rating is down to 54 percent from 64 percent just a month
ago, the lowest level since the summer before the Sept. 11, 2001,
attacks.
Three-quarters of Americans see war as inevitable, and two-thirds
approve of war as an option. But many people continue to be deeply
ambivalent about war if faced with the prospect of high casualties or
a lengthy occupation of Iraq that further damages the American
economy. Twenty-nine percent of respondents in the poll, which was
conducted Monday through Wednesday, disapprove of taking military
action against Iraq.
With major decisions of war and peace still pending, 59 percent of
Americans said they believed the president should give the United
Nations more time. Sixty-three percent said Washington should not act
without the support of its allies, and 56 percent said Mr. Bush should
wait for United Nations approval.
As concurrent crises converge on the White House, including a
rancorous conflict within the NATO alliance over Iraq war planning,
President Bush's job approval ratings have lost ground across the
board. Fifty-three percent of Americans disapproved of the way he is
handling the economy, and 44 percent disapproved of his overall
management of foreign policy.
Though 53 percent of Americans said they approved of the way Mr. Bush
is handling Iraq, only 47 percent approved of his foreign policy
management over all.
Moreover, a year and a half after the Sept. 11 terrorist assault, only
a third of Americans said they think the United States and its allies
are winning the antiterror campaign, while 38 percent think that
neither side is winning and 20 percent regard the terrorists as still
having the upper hand. Only 49 percent of Americans think Mr. Bush has
a coherent plan for dealing with terrorism.
If historic trends hold, a decision by Mr. Bush to go to war, even
without United Nations backing, is likely to rally the country behind
the president. Still, these poll results indicate that the reluctance
many Americans feel about the costs of war represent a significant
political risk for the Bush administration.
The nationwide telephone poll was conducted with 747 adults and has a
margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.
Americans, overwhelmingly, continue to take the threat of terrorist
attacks very seriously, with 80 percent saying that another attack is
either "very" or "somewhat" likely within the next few months. And the
number of Americans paying closer attention to news media reports
about the prospect of war has increased to 71 percent from 43 percent
since September.
Still, while there is a high degree of awareness, substantial conflict
and confusion exist among the public about Iraq and the antiterror
campaign, so much so that 42 percent of those polled said they
believed Saddam Hussein was involved in the Sept. 11 attacks. Neither
the Bush administration nor any other authority has alleged such
involvement.
More than anything, Americans remained concerned about the threat of
Qaeda terrorism far more than any threat from Iraq, though concern
about the threat from Baghdad has gained some ground.
In January, 59 percent of the public saw Al Qaeda as a greater threat
to peace and stability than Iraq. Fifteen percent saw Iraq as the
greater threat. In this week's survey, 28 percent saw Iraq as the
greater threat, but 51 percent still perceived the Qaeda threat as
more serious.
"I think Al Qaeda is a bigger threat because they are in little
pockets all over the world," said Nancy Alonso, 66, of Lincoln, R.I.
"That is more dangerous than having them in one big place."
Ms. Alonso, a retired nurse, was one of the poll respondents
interviewed after the survey was taken. She said she was concerned
that the rest of the world might "turn on us" if Mr. Bush failed to
pursue his goals with patience and diplomatic skill. "The
administration is pushing too quickly for war," she said, adding that
the inspectors should get six months to a year to complete their task.
At the same time, poll respondents gave Mr. Bush credit for explaining
his administration's position on Iraq than they did six months ago,
when 64 percent felt he had not explained his policy.
Those who said they believe the Bush administration has clearly
articulated a rationale for attacking Iraq has nearly doubled, to 53
percent from 27 percent in September.
But more information has not translated into greater support for war,
which remains at 66 percent. A year ago, a CBS News poll recorded 74
percent in favor of military action against Iraq. The support level
for war has held firm at two-thirds of Americans, but this majority
breaks down on questions of timing and diplomacy.
"I think if we gave weapons inspectors more time, perhaps countries
like France and Germany would change their minds," said Rocky
Ostermeyer, 42, who owns a landscaping company in Tucson. "It would
help if we were more united," Mr. Ostermeyer added, referring to
efforts by Paris and Berlin to extend and strengthen the United
Nations inspection process until it is clear that it has no chance of
succeeding.
In Appleton, Wis., Ruby Neilson, 74, a retired nursing assistant,
said: "I think we should give the weapons inspectors more time because
that may help prevent a war. I am very afraid of war."
As to how much time, Mrs. Neilson said she was not in a hurry.
"They should have as much time as it takes, three months at least,"
she said. After the inspectors have exhausted their search activities,
"if they think there are weapons still hid, then they could just say
let's get it over with."
The poll was taken five days after Mr. Powell's speech to the United
Nations laying out the administration's case for war. Polls taken
immediately after Mr. Powell's presentation to the Security Council
showed a marked increase, up to 70 percent, in support for military
action. But that has decreased in recent days.
It was not clear from the poll just how much Mr. Powell's popularity
has influenced public support for the war.
Respondents to the poll showed the same ambivalence about the war and
its potential consequences whether they were responding to a question
about Mr. Powell's view or the Bush administration's view in general.
It was clear, though, that whether it is the Bush administration or
Mr. Powell in particular, the case for war has not been fully made.
The public is not convinced that Mr. Bush has tried hard enough to use
diplomacy to avoid war. Poll respondents were divided, 45 percent to
48 percent, over whether Mr. Bush has tried hard enough to reach a
diplomatic solution or whether he has been too quick to get military
forces involved.
Bert Jarvis, 66, a retired Methodist minister from Amarillo, Tex.,
said a lot would depend on the report on Friday to the Security
Council by Hans Blix, the chief weapons inspector.
"I'm from Texas and I understand Bush's mindset: just go get the bad
guys," Mr. Jarvis said. But he cautioned that more time was needed.
"Probably not past a year," he said, but more time.
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