NYT: Polls recover from Powell speech

Michael Pollak mpollak at panix.com
Fri Feb 14 05:38:30 PST 2003


[On closer inspection, what it looks like is happening it that most people support a war "in principle," i.e., if inspections don't work. I think these people have been counted as "supporting war." But in fact, they support extending inspections. In other words, their position is almost exactly the same as the French government's.]

[*Except* for one last thing: most Americans only support war if there is no occupation -- which is impossible. Or if possible, a disaster. That sounds believable and should be scary for both opponents and proponents. In a best case scenario, it would give the White House pause because it would imply that two years from now an occupied Iraq would lose him the White House. In a worst case scenario, it would lead to Iraq quickly being fobbed off with the same shambolic jury-rigged operation that we're running in Afghanistan, threatening something truly disastrous.]

New York Times February 14, 2003

Poll Finds Most in U.S. Support Delaying a War

By PATRICK E. TYLER and JANET ELDER

E ven after the administration's aggressive case for going to war soon

in Iraq, a majority of Americans favor giving United Nations weapons

inspectors more time to complete their work so that any military

operation wins the support of the Security Council, the latest New

York Times/CBS News Poll shows.

The public supports a war to remove Saddam Hussein. But Americans are

split over whether the Bush administration and Secretary of State

Colin L. Powell have made a convincing case for going to war right

now, even though much of the public is inclined to believe that Iraq

and Al Qaeda are connected in terrorism.

The poll found that while the economy still commands the greatest

concern among Americans, the prospect of combat in Iraq, fear of

terrorism and the North Korean nuclear standoff are stirring

additional anxieties.

These worries may be taking a toll on Mr. Bush's support. His overall

job approval rating is down to 54 percent from 64 percent just a month

ago, the lowest level since the summer before the Sept. 11, 2001,

attacks.

Three-quarters of Americans see war as inevitable, and two-thirds

approve of war as an option. But many people continue to be deeply

ambivalent about war if faced with the prospect of high casualties or

a lengthy occupation of Iraq that further damages the American

economy. Twenty-nine percent of respondents in the poll, which was

conducted Monday through Wednesday, disapprove of taking military

action against Iraq.

With major decisions of war and peace still pending, 59 percent of

Americans said they believed the president should give the United

Nations more time. Sixty-three percent said Washington should not act

without the support of its allies, and 56 percent said Mr. Bush should

wait for United Nations approval.

As concurrent crises converge on the White House, including a

rancorous conflict within the NATO alliance over Iraq war planning,

President Bush's job approval ratings have lost ground across the

board. Fifty-three percent of Americans disapproved of the way he is

handling the economy, and 44 percent disapproved of his overall

management of foreign policy.

Though 53 percent of Americans said they approved of the way Mr. Bush

is handling Iraq, only 47 percent approved of his foreign policy

management over all.

Moreover, a year and a half after the Sept. 11 terrorist assault, only

a third of Americans said they think the United States and its allies

are winning the antiterror campaign, while 38 percent think that

neither side is winning and 20 percent regard the terrorists as still

having the upper hand. Only 49 percent of Americans think Mr. Bush has

a coherent plan for dealing with terrorism.

If historic trends hold, a decision by Mr. Bush to go to war, even

without United Nations backing, is likely to rally the country behind

the president. Still, these poll results indicate that the reluctance

many Americans feel about the costs of war represent a significant

political risk for the Bush administration.

The nationwide telephone poll was conducted with 747 adults and has a

margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Americans, overwhelmingly, continue to take the threat of terrorist

attacks very seriously, with 80 percent saying that another attack is

either "very" or "somewhat" likely within the next few months. And the

number of Americans paying closer attention to news media reports

about the prospect of war has increased to 71 percent from 43 percent

since September.

Still, while there is a high degree of awareness, substantial conflict

and confusion exist among the public about Iraq and the antiterror

campaign, so much so that 42 percent of those polled said they

believed Saddam Hussein was involved in the Sept. 11 attacks. Neither

the Bush administration nor any other authority has alleged such

involvement.

More than anything, Americans remained concerned about the threat of

Qaeda terrorism far more than any threat from Iraq, though concern

about the threat from Baghdad has gained some ground.

In January, 59 percent of the public saw Al Qaeda as a greater threat

to peace and stability than Iraq. Fifteen percent saw Iraq as the

greater threat. In this week's survey, 28 percent saw Iraq as the

greater threat, but 51 percent still perceived the Qaeda threat as

more serious.

"I think Al Qaeda is a bigger threat because they are in little

pockets all over the world," said Nancy Alonso, 66, of Lincoln, R.I.

"That is more dangerous than having them in one big place."

Ms. Alonso, a retired nurse, was one of the poll respondents

interviewed after the survey was taken. She said she was concerned

that the rest of the world might "turn on us" if Mr. Bush failed to

pursue his goals with patience and diplomatic skill. "The

administration is pushing too quickly for war," she said, adding that

the inspectors should get six months to a year to complete their task.

At the same time, poll respondents gave Mr. Bush credit for explaining

his administration's position on Iraq than they did six months ago,

when 64 percent felt he had not explained his policy.

Those who said they believe the Bush administration has clearly

articulated a rationale for attacking Iraq has nearly doubled, to 53

percent from 27 percent in September.

But more information has not translated into greater support for war,

which remains at 66 percent. A year ago, a CBS News poll recorded 74

percent in favor of military action against Iraq. The support level

for war has held firm at two-thirds of Americans, but this majority

breaks down on questions of timing and diplomacy.

"I think if we gave weapons inspectors more time, perhaps countries

like France and Germany would change their minds," said Rocky

Ostermeyer, 42, who owns a landscaping company in Tucson. "It would

help if we were more united," Mr. Ostermeyer added, referring to

efforts by Paris and Berlin to extend and strengthen the United

Nations inspection process until it is clear that it has no chance of

succeeding.

In Appleton, Wis., Ruby Neilson, 74, a retired nursing assistant,

said: "I think we should give the weapons inspectors more time because

that may help prevent a war. I am very afraid of war."

As to how much time, Mrs. Neilson said she was not in a hurry.

"They should have as much time as it takes, three months at least,"

she said. After the inspectors have exhausted their search activities,

"if they think there are weapons still hid, then they could just say

let's get it over with."

The poll was taken five days after Mr. Powell's speech to the United

Nations laying out the administration's case for war. Polls taken

immediately after Mr. Powell's presentation to the Security Council

showed a marked increase, up to 70 percent, in support for military

action. But that has decreased in recent days.

It was not clear from the poll just how much Mr. Powell's popularity

has influenced public support for the war.

Respondents to the poll showed the same ambivalence about the war and

its potential consequences whether they were responding to a question

about Mr. Powell's view or the Bush administration's view in general.

It was clear, though, that whether it is the Bush administration or

Mr. Powell in particular, the case for war has not been fully made.

The public is not convinced that Mr. Bush has tried hard enough to use

diplomacy to avoid war. Poll respondents were divided, 45 percent to

48 percent, over whether Mr. Bush has tried hard enough to reach a

diplomatic solution or whether he has been too quick to get military

forces involved.

Bert Jarvis, 66, a retired Methodist minister from Amarillo, Tex.,

said a lot would depend on the report on Friday to the Security

Council by Hans Blix, the chief weapons inspector.

"I'm from Texas and I understand Bush's mindset: just go get the bad

guys," Mr. Jarvis said. But he cautioned that more time was needed.

"Probably not past a year," he said, but more time.

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