poll numbers dropping like rocks

Nathan Newman nathanne at nathannewman.org
Thu Feb 20 16:02:30 PST 2003


----- Original Message ----- From: "Doug Henwood" <dhenwood at panix.com>

Nomiprins at aol.com wrote:
>Interesting dimension. Bush led the overall point declines with 36.
>
>However, the Dems are right behind him with a 30 point decline of their
own.
>Their overall popularity of 38% is almost the lowest on the list,
>second only to a fairly unknown House speaker.

-Cue to Nathan to tell us why this is really great news...

Because generic party approval is one of the most ephemeral numbers and hardest to guage. Partisan Dems can disapprove of the Democratic leadership for being too wishywashy. The more interesting number is partisan affiliation and who would they vote for, but that's so far away as to be meaningless. But Bush's election numbers are falling. He only has a definite elect number of 42% in the Ipsos-Reid poll. And in the LA Times, which asked for a Bush versus generic Democratic candidate choice, it was Bush 45% to 40% Dem.

Hey, I've already bet money on Bush to lose in 2004.

-- Nathan Newman



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