> Even if the US is in ecomonic trouble, that doesn't
> mean it's not the strongest power by far, and likely
> to remain so for the foreseeable future. Japan's in
> worse trouble, Europe is relatively weaker and
> disunited.
I'm writing a little screed on geopolitics, but here's some advance data:
Based on 2001 data and current exchange rates and Eurostat/EC commission data, the EU core economies (defined as, the Eurozone countries minus the UK, Spain, Portugal, and Greece, but plus Sweden, Norway, Switzerland and Denmark) have 269 million people and a GDP of 6.8 trillion, the US has 280 million people and a GDP of 9.4 trillion, and the East Asian core (Japan, Singapore, and Hong Kong) has 138 million people and a GDP of 4.2 trillion.
But the real story is that the EU and East Asia are surrounded by vast semiperipheries with enormous growth potential. The EU semiperiphery -- Portugal, Spain, and Greece, plus the accession countries -- is an economic region of 139 million people and 1.3 trillion GDP. East Asia's semiperiphery, defined as South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, and the ten richest Chinese provinces, gives you 589 million people with an average per capita GDP of EUR 2,566, for a total GDP of 1.5 trillion.
Here's the math (for analytic purposes, I'm excluding the UK, Canada and Australia, countries which aren't quite core economies, but are richer than the average semiperiphery):
Enlarged EU = 8.1 trillion EUR EA + semiperiphery = 6.7 trillion EUR US = 9.4 trillion EUR
Collectively, the new metropoles already outweigh the US by 57%, and are of course net financiers of the US economy. Sauron is mighty, but the Euro-hobbits are potentially mightier still.
-- DRR