NYers cool to war

[Doug Henwood]

[The other day Yoshie asked for evidence for my claim that New 
Yorkers, who are among the most likely targets of any terrorist 
attack on the U.S., are also less bellicose than the rest of the 
country. I responded anecdotally. Here's something more rigorous. I 
suspect that, aside from being more "liberal" than the rest of the 
U.S., New Yorkers' fears are rational, and worry that a war on Iraq 
only increases the risk of retaliatory attacks, which means on us; in 
the heartland, the fears are mainly the product of fantasy and 
propaganda. Note that residents of the NYC metro area are even less 
hot for war than upstaters. Of course, if terrorists really wanted to 
fuck with Americans' heads, they'd hit Terre Haute, not the IRT. The 
full results of the poll are at 
<http://www.siena.edu/sri/results/03Feb_Iraq.htm>.]

New York Times - February 21, 2003

New Yorkers Seen as Cool to War
By LESLIE EATON

The prospect of invading Iraq is significantly less popular in New 
York State than in the nation as a whole, and New Yorkers are more 
critical of the Bush administration's Iraq policy, according to a 
survey released yesterday by the Siena Research Institute in 
Loudonville, N.Y.

While a recent Gallup poll for CNN and USA Today found that 63 
percent of Americans favor invading Iraq, only 49 percent of New 
Yorkers do, according to the Siena poll of 620 state residents.

The Siena poll was conducted from Feb. 12 to Feb. 14, and has a 
margin of sampling error of four percentage points. The eight 
questions asked were also asked in the Gallup poll conducted from 
Feb. 7 to Feb. 9, though that poll included more questions.

Only 42 percent of New Yorkers agreed that the Bush administration 
had a well-thought-out policy on Iraq, compared with 59 percent 
nationally. Close to half of the New Yorkers polled - 48 percent - 
did not agree, while nationally only 35 percent took that position. A 
difference of five percentage points is considered significant.

Douglas Lonnstrom, the director of the Siena Institute, said he was 
surprised by the magnitude of the difference between New York and the 
rest of the country, though not surprised that there was a 
difference. New Yorkers tend to be more liberal than many other 
Americans, he said, "so it's not surprising that the rest of the 
nation is more hawkish."

Residents of the New York City metropolitan area were less likely to 
favor an invasion than people upstate, and more likely to think that 
the United States has not done all it could to solve its problems 
with Iraq through diplomatic means.

Only 43 percent of all New Yorkers agreed that the government has 
exhausted its diplomatic options, compared with 54 percent of the 
respondents to the national Gallup poll.

Despite their doubts about the Bush administration's policies, large 
majorities of the New Yorkers surveyed by Siena said they believed 
Iraq has biological or chemical weapons and the facilities to create 
weapons of mass destruction.

But they were less sure than most Americans about Iraq's links with 
Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda. While 86 percent of the respondents to 
the Gallup poll said they thought it was likely or certain that such 
ties exist, only 66 percent of New Yorkers agreed. Twenty percent of 
them had no opinion, which was true of only 2 percent of the 
respondents to the national poll.

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