Former Russian prime minister Yevgeniy Primakov's trip to Baghdad on 22-23 February is "a bad sign". "It indicates that the war is inevitable," Doctor of History Georgiy Mirskiy, a senior researcher with the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Ekho Moskvy. He drew parallels with a similar visit that Primakov made 12 years ago on the eve of the first Gulf war . Mirskiy believes that a military campaign is imminent and inevitable.
He also believes that Iraq will preserve its integrity after Saddam Husayn's
regime is overthrown. "Nobody is interested in its disintegration, and the Arab world less than others," he said.
Mirskiy said that the USA and its allies should not hope for support by Iraqi Shiites. "On the one hand, the Shiites might be willing to join the coalition in order to carve out a place for themselves in post-war Iraq. On the other hand, the Shiites have stronger anti-American sentiments than anybody else. They also stand for a united Iraq," he said.
There is a danger that radical Islamists could replace Saddam and turn Iraq into a theocracy. "The collapse of a dictatorship is often followed by a power vacuum and chaos. Everything that has been suppressed for a long time,
gets loose. People begin to settle old scores, crime increases and a rampant
mafia comes on the scene. Bloodshed in Iraq is quite possible as the Kurds will start to fight the Arabs and Sunni Muslims will stand up against the Shiites. The only way to avoid anarchy is to establish a regime strongly backed by the occupying power, Mirskiy said. The post-Saddam authorities should preserve the national army, he said.
Speaking about the Russian position, Mirskiy said that using the right of veto in the UN Security Council against the new resolution on Iraq would be against Russia's interests. The USA will launch the campaign anyway, he said. Russia would be better to try to retain its positions in Iraq. Mirskiy recalled that Russian oil companies had invested big money in Iraq, and a number of projects were pending.
Mirskiy believes that Iraq won't return its old debts to Russia with Husayn or without him. "We should have forgotten about it long ago," he said.