MANAMA FEB. 26. In holding discussions with the Iraqi President, Saddam Hussein, over the weekend, the former Russian Prime Minister, Yevgeny Primakov, may have proposed a realistic formulation that could help in averting a U.S.-led attack on Baghdad.
Mr. Primakov reportedly held extensive discussions with Mr. Hussein on Saturday and Sunday in one of the palaces of the Iraqi President in Tikrit, north of the Baghdad. For Mr. Primakov, his talks were in some ways a replay of 1991 when he had been asked to undertake a trouble-shooting mission by Moscow, to ward off the first Persian-Gulf war. The former Russian Premier, who was also the one-time chief of the KGB, is a West Asia expert and is known to be Mr. Hussein's personal friend.
There is considerable speculation in diplomatic circles in the region about the specific proposals that Mr. Primakov brought before Mr. Hussein on behalf of the Russian President, Vladimir Putin. But according to one view, Mr. Primakov addressed the question of Iraqi disarmament and explored the possibility of ensuring Mr. Hussein's honourable departure from the Iraqi centre-stage. Mr. Pirmakov, in his effort to address the question of Iraqi disarmament and "regime change", started with the assumption that Mr. Hussein would not accept voluntary exile as an option to defuse the crisis.
Consequently, diplomatic sources point out that it is likely that Mr. Primakov exhorted Mr. Hussein to fully cooperate with the U.N. weapons inspectors so that Iraqi disarmament could be concluded soon. Incidentally, the U.N. chief weapons inspector, Hans Blix on Tuesday described as "positive" Iraq's recovery of a R-400 bomb and the receipt of letters, which could explain the whereabouts of some earlier stocks of Iraq's biological and chemical weapons.
The Russian Foreign Ministry in a statement has also said after Mr. Primakov's departure from Baghdad that there was "a real chance to put a full stop to the question of Iraq's potential to develop weapons of mass destruction.''
Without seeking his voluntary exile, it is likely that Mr. Primakov proposed to Mr. Hussein that he could continue as Iraq's figurehead President for another year.
But during this time-frame, he should consider appointing a new interim authority where all Iraqis, including some of those who were at present in exile, were represented.
This body, in turn, needed to draft a new democratic constitution and hold fresh elections.
Mr. Hussein, after the lapse of a year, could retire by choosing to reside in one his palaces under an international guard. While his movements thereafter would become circumscribed, Mr. Hussein's financial assets, under this arrangement would continue to remain protected.
Russia is expected to launch a diplomatic offensive to "sell" these ideas, especially to Germany, France and the United States, in case Mr. Hussein finds the broad thrust of these proposals acceptable.