[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only] THE AMERICANS DON'T KNOW WHAT THEY ARE DOING The USA needs the war in Iraq in order to get rid of its complexes
Yuli VORONTSOV, special representative of the UN Secretary General and head of the Iraq-Kuwait negotiations, has recently visited the region, which has been in the international spotlight for quite some time. He met with representatives of Iraq and several other countries and saw American troops prepare for future battles. He talked with Andrei ARTYOMOV of Nezavisimoye Voennoye Obozreniye about his impressions.
Question: Can Iraq mount serious resistance to the USA?
Answer: It probably has a certain amount of chemical munitions but they are not very effective in theatre operations. They can do some damage, but not very large.
Question: Can Iraq send some of its missiles to neighbouring countries, above all Israel?
Answer: No, it has only missiles with the range of 150 km; all other missiles have been put out of commission. Israel nevertheless fears potential Iraqi strikes, especially biological ones. But as far as I know, Iraq can no longer do this.
Question: What do you know about plans for the post-Saddam Iraq?
Answer: The country can be split, though other Arab and Moslem countries will be against it. This is why the Americans say they would keep the country intact. But some of its neighbours are already reaching out to the Iraqi territory. And the Kurds will not sit on their hands while others would divide the Iraqi pie.
Question: Can the Kurd leaders attempt to integrate all Kurdish areas in the neighbouring countries?
Answer: We should assume that they would try this. It is not by chance that Iran has ordered its troops to advance to the border with Iraq. And Turkey will have a hard time, too.
On the whole, I think the Americans don't know what they are doing. Their war plans may end very soon, possibly in a victory and subsequent occupation of Iraq. But they cannot imagine what would happen after that.
The USA is nurturing the idea of bringing democracy to Iraq but this plan will also affect, one way or another, the neighbouring countries that have never had democracy. This is what the American politicians cannot foresee. Nobody can recarve and change whole countries and regions with impunity. Some people in Washington, first and foremost in the State Department, have analysed all possible variants and some politicians there know the Arab world rather well. But nobody listens to them, or rather, nobody in the White House or the Congress wants to listen to them.
But Europeans can count better and have more experience in foreign policy than the Americans who still prefer the daring cowboy style. Why is Europe worried? Because during - and especially after - the war masses of not just refugees but also terrorists would spill over from the region where Iraq is situated into Europe. But what do the Americans care? Iraq is situated far away from their country. They would fight there, just as they did in Afghanistan, picking the fruit of victory and leaving Europeans to combat with the roots.
Question: You represented the Soviet Union in the UN on the eve and during the 1991 Gulf war. At that time we abstained during the voting on the crucial Iraqi resolution in the Security Council. Will we act likewise now?
Answer: I think everything will depend on the atmosphere in the Security Council. The Russian delegation may vote against the new resolution on going to war with Saddam Hussein. As you know, the council has five permanent and ten non-permanent members and it takes nine votes to pass a resolution - provided no permanent member votes against.
Question: Russia's stand is ambiguous, as Bush is a friend and Europe is not an adversary either. Are we doing right by manoeuvring between them?
Answer: Absolutely right. We are pursuing a very cautious policy that is firmly based on principle. We are against war.
Question: What would Russia lose and what would it gain from the war?
Answer: It is clear that the Americans will not compensate for anything after they win the war. Those Russian economists and politicians who believe Washington's hints are doing this to their own peril. I know the Americans very well: they will not let anything out of their hands. Look at the 1999 events in Kosovo and you will see that I am right.
Question: Has the USA missed the time for launching the war?
Answer: I think the Americans had not launched the war earlier not only because they had not amassed enough troops but also because they were not ready for it morally. I think the war will begin around March 15 and the Americans will try to end it by April 15-20.