Self-determination

Wojtek Sokolowski sokol at jhu.edu
Wed Jan 8 12:06:00 PST 2003



> >What happened to the "race to the bottom" that you read about in
> >almost every left-wing publication around?
> >
> >What, if any, sectors of Indian society are worse off now
> than 10 years
> >ago?
> >
> >Doug

The race to the bottom took place in the previously industrialized countries, as mfg jobs were shipped to newly industrialized countries. As I understand, mfg jobs in those countries pay well by local standards, but of course not as much as good union jobs in the US or Western Europe.

The persistence of rural poor is a different story - it merely testifies to the fact that a tidal wave does not lift all the boats (as neoliberals claim) not that it makes everyone worse off (as the race to the bottom folks claim).

There is another aspect of this transfer which in the old social movement lit is known as the J-curve theory. The argument goes as follows. Raising living standards (e.g. in newly developing countries due to industrialization) cause raising expectations about the future. For a while, standards and expectations raise hand in hand, but eventually standards level off or even fall down a bit (which is graphically represented as a letter J sideways - see the graph below). However, expectations keep growing which results in a wider and wider gap beteen expectations and reality. That growing gap is a source of discontent that fuels social movements.

J-curve theory

l x

l x

l x o o

l x o o

l x o

l x o

l x o

l__________________________

X - expectations O - living standards

That theory fits quite well the Eastern European scene, and there is no reason to belive that other developing countries are different. The bottom line is that (i) industrialization may benefit some but does not help all rural poor (which is the classic overpopulation problem), and (ii) even those who benefit from it will eventually be dissatisfied as their expectations will keep rising above what can be delivered given current economic situation.

So industrialization/globalization can be blamed only for not solving all social problems (hardly a blame, since nothing can), rather than for making everyone but a handful of rich people worse off. However, whether the rising standards of living among some segments of the third world work force are or are not enough of a compensation for a bunch of white males in the US having to switch jobs from GM to Wal-Mart is an altogether different question, the answer to which depends on where one stands.

Wojtek



More information about the lbo-talk mailing list