For more information contact: - Jonathan Stevenson (CASI coordinator) on +44 7818 651124 or info at casi.org.uk <mailto:info at casi.org.uk> - Dr Glen Rangwala (CASI press contact) on +44 7880 665731 or glen at casi.org.uk <mailto:glen at casi.org.uk> - Nathaniel Hurd (United States) on 917-407-3389 or nathaniel_hurd at hotmail.com <mailto:nathaniel_hurd at hotmail.com>
Confidential UN Document Predicts Humanitarian Emergency in Event of
War on Iraq
A "strictly confidential" UN document, written to assist with UN contingency planning in the event of war with Iraq, predicts high civilian injuries, an extension of the existing nutritional crisis, and "the outbreak of diseases in epidemic if not pandemic proportions." The existence of the draft document, entitled "Likely Humanitarian Scenarios" and dated 10th December 2002, was first reported in the Times (London) on 23rd December 2002, but this is the first time it has been made publicly accessible. It is available at http://middleeastreference.org.uk/war021210.pdf (please note this is a 1Mb document which may take some time to download).
The document focuses on the likely humanitarian consequences of a range of anticipated military scenarios. It estimates that:
* "as many as 500,000 people could require treatment to a greater or
lesser degree as a result of direct or indirect injuries", based
upon World Health Organisation estimates of 100,000 direct and
400,000 indirect casualties [para 23]. It indicates existing
shortages of some medical items, "rendering the existing stocks
inadequate" for war-increased demand [para 22], and exacerbated by
the "likely absence of a functioning primary health care system in
a post-conflict situation" [para 24].
* damage to the electricity network will reduce "water and
sanitation as well as health [sectors]" [para 5]. In the short
term "39% of the population will need to be provided with potable
water" [para 28]. The high number of indirect casualties may be
because "the outbreak of diseases in epidemic if not pandemic
proportions is very likely" [para 25].
* "It is estimated that the nutritional status of some 3.03m people
countrywide will be dire and that they will require therapeutic
feeding [according to UNICEF estimates]. This consists of 2.03m
severely and moderately malnourished children under 5 and one
million pregnant women" [para 27]
* "It is estimated that there will eventually be some 900,000 Iraqi
refugees requiring assistance, of which 100,000 will be in need of
immediate assistance, [according to UNHCR]" [para 35]. An
estimated 2 million people will require some assistance with
shelter [para 33]. For 130,000 existing refugees in Iraq "it is
probable that UNHCR will initially be unable to provide the
support required" [para 36]
The document also rejects comparisons with humanitarian outcomes of both the 2001 Afghanistan and 1991 Gulf conflicts, since the existing sanctions-induced humanitarian situation in Iraq has produced a population in which 16 million (60%) "have no other means with which to provide for other essential requirements" other than monthly government food rations [para 2,4,11]
Notes for editors:
1) The document is available at http://middleeastreference.org.uk/war021210.pdf, and was provided by the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq (CASI), a Cambridge-based NGO which exists to raise awareness of the effects of sanctions on Iraq, and campaigns on humanitarian grounds for the lifting of non-military sanctions. CASI does not support or have ties to the government of Iraq. Accompanying notes are at http://www.casi.org.uk/info/undocs/war021210notes.html
2) Please note this UN document is a draft. Estimates and other content may have since been revised. Additionally, several paragraphs and tables have been deleted at the request of the individual who released the document, including the entirety of page 3.
3) CASI's website can be found at www.casi.org.uk <http://www.casi.org.uk/>; it can be contacted by email on info at casi.org.uk <mailto:info at casi.org.uk>.