[Hmm, according to the following excerpt from the LBO archives, your stock trading "idea" as of March 2000 was buy, buy, buy! At what point, exactly, did you temper your bullishness?]
Subject: Re: Fed ineffectual so far... From: Jordan Hayes (jmhayes at j-o-r-d-a-n.com) Date: Wed Mar 22 2000 - 13:20:33 EST
>>Another negative: free cash flow for nonfinancial corporations (profits
>>plus depreciation allowances less capital expenditures) has been pretty
>>strongly negative for the last 2 years. This has been a pretty decent
>>long-term leading indicator for the stock market, though of course Jordan
>>says everything is still ok.
>Does he? Haven't seen his take on the market here in a while.
My long term view is that it's got a lot further to go up, absent my two leading indicators: stock supply (which as Doug pointed out earlier is still shrinking, a bullish sign) and tax policy (they raised the limits on 401ks again this year, another bullish sign).
In the medium term, I think that some fundamentals in the market are changing and the Fed might be running out of tricks. ...
[end of excerpt]
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