Thursday, January 16, 2003
World Bank sees Indonesia GDP growth of 3-3.5% in 2003
Reuters Jakarta, January 16
The World Bank said on Thursday it expects Indonesia GDP to grow between three and 3.5 per cent in 2003, against a government estimate of 3.5 to four per cent.
It also said in a report it expects an Indonesian inflation rate of nine per cent, a rupiah rate of 9,000 to the dollar, and an oil price of $23.50 per barrel.
In early November, the Bank had projected 2003 growth at 3.2 per cent, inflation at 9.8 per cent, the average rupiah rate at 9,300 and the average oil price at $22/barrel.
"The government expects a growth rate of 3.5 to four per cent for 2003, which is at the higher end of the forecast spectrum, but still within a margin of error from World Bank expectation of three to 3.5 per cent," the report said.
"Possible budget shortfalls due to lower growth are more than offset by the likely higher oil revenue, as the budget assumes a rather conservative oil price," it added.
Indonesia's government estimated earlier this month that the economy grew an estimated 3.6 per cent in 2002 and that the inflation rate was 10 per cent. The Bank also said Indonesia is expected to seek between $2.4 and $2.8 billion for 2003 from the donors in the Consultative Group on Indonesia (CGI), down substantially from 2002.
"Total CGI financing request for 2003 is projected as $2.4 to $2.8 billion," the Bank said in a report.
World Bank country director for Indonesia, Andrew Steer told reporters the lower amount "implies good news. The good news is that the needs are down and it reflects good macro-economic management."
"We think that (amount) is doable," he added.
The CGI's 30-plus bilateral donors and multilateral institutions are due to meet next week to consider Indonesia's 2003 requests.
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