http://dc.indymedia.org/front.php3?article_id=46658&group=webcast New Crowd Size Estimate Tops 377K by steelgame 5:03pm Sun Jan 19 '03 (Modified on 4:05am Tue Jan 21 '03) steelgame at yahoo.com
New crowd estimate tops 377K. Methodology included.
Last night I posted http://dc.indymedia.org/front.php3?article_id=46490&group=webcast with a formula and methodology for making an estimate of the Saturday crowd size--nobody else has published a methodology.
With my first estimate of more than 265,000 in the march I got some comments on my methodology.
Here is the most useful.
"The problem with your calculation is that the end of the route was reached by the first marchers 1/2 hour before people with me (about 3/4 of the way back) even started marching. Therefore, the length would be your number, plus about .25 times that number, plus the amount of space that would have been covered in that 1/2 hour. A further problem is that numerous people got cold and left the march before it ended."
There are three variables here that would increase my number (the time delay, the distance covered and the "leakage" factor of people coming and going). My original figure accounts for the second variable only. I can not account for the third variable without tests. However the first can be accounted for. If we assume people march at 3 miles per hour...a slow walk...then we should increase our mileage by 1.5 to account for a half hour gap instead of 0.4. That would increase the estimate to 377,696
REVISED FINAL ESTIMATE OF NUMBERS: 377,696 marchers
The formula again
X=length of march in feet (2.2 miles + 1.5 =3.7. Accounting for the time delay and gap. Convert this to feet. 5280 ft in a mile) Y=width of march in feet (58 feet) Z=square footage of march area (use formula) P=square footage consumed by 1 marcher (3 sq ft) N=number of people in the march (use formular)
the formulas X*Y=Z Z/P=N
REVISED FINAL ESTIMATE OF NUMBERS: 377,696 marchers