Pessimism, and a small bit of optimism about Iraq

Gar Lipow lipowg at sprintmail.com
Mon Jan 27 20:48:10 PST 2003


We have two fights right now, the war and the invasion. The war has been ongoing since Iraq troops were kicked out of Kuwait; sanctions supposedly aime at arms control but actully at the civilian population of Iraq combined with regular bombings have amount to continuing siege warfare, slowly killing the civilian population of Iraq. Unfortunately, I don't see us winnning the fight against this is the near future.

But about the invasion - the massacre of Iraq civilians, followed by the enplacement of a new, more U.S. friendly version of Saddam; this I'm optimistic about stopping.

I know - we did not stop the other peaks in this war. But one thing is different that may make our protests more effective. The elites are split.

There are sound capitalist reason for this. What the U.S. gains from the invasion is an acceleraton the a process that was happening anyway - growing U.S. dominance. Against this there are huge risks - the alienation of allies who might have tolerated being taken over slowly, but will not be allowed by their people to let us take them over quickly.

An Iraq invasion will inspire new anti-US terrorist groups, and be a recuriting bonanza for old ones. Following an Iraq invasion, the U.s. might learn what real terrorism is like - not the one time atrocity of thousands dying in 911, but what Israel goes through - any where from a few to a few dozen civilians killed every week in school buses, discos, shopping districts or wherever ordinairy people congeregate - not as many casualities as 911, but occuring constantly week after week. (And I know the Palestinian people suffer much worse. But the compasion of Israel is more apropos; I don't think the resulting U.S. suffering from an Iraq invasion will be comparable to Israel's and not to that of the Palestinians. Iraqs will probably be more comporable to that.)

And of course we may inspire revolutons in countries the U.S. now controls - including nuclear armed Pakistan. (And for anyone foolish enough to say "good" this will be by the most reactionary elements. At any rate I'm presenting some reasons for elite oppposition. I don't think these are bad reasons for progressives as well - just that we also give a damn about the suffering of the Iraq people.)

Have I got more than motive so suggest elite opposition? (I mean the U.S. elite - for every other country in the world the evidence is on the fron pages of our major newspapers.) Well we've all been suprised at some of the people who have spoken against the invasion. Not only Ritter, but I heard fuckin Butler on CNN say he thought invasion was a bad idea. And the coverage in U.S. papers of the anti-war demos J28 and of foreign opposition has been unusually good. But for me the clincher has been the coverage of Ritter being caught in the police sting. Did you see the discussion in the NY Times, the front page coverage in the Washington Post? Neither did I. Now do you think if Noam Chomsky had been causght in similar circumstances that it would have been ignored? Or Jess Jackson Jr? Or Al Sharpton? Ritter was not being treated as a dissident; he is still considered a representative of a segment of elite opinion; no way he would have been treated as gently as he was, otherwise.

OK a final bit of evidence to come - one way or another. If Bush was going to lauch the invasion before March (and there seem to be mixed hints - yes we will delay until March, no we won't) then the State of the Union message would be a perfect time to do this. "People of this great land; our patience is at an end. Two hours ago the bombing of Bagdhad began. 75,000 troops will follow within a week." If something along those lines does not happen tomorrow then I'm pretty damn sure of no invasion until March. And with that additional time the anti-war movement can grow, make an invasion even harder.

And that leads me to the last point. This limited optimisim is based on the combination of elite division with increased militancy by the left. Because the elite opposing the invasion, though powerful is not the dominant faction. But if there is a really massive growth in the anti-war movement, then that combined with the existing elite division may be enough to tip the balance. In short there is an additional reason to be more active and more militant than before; we have a small but real chance of stopping the invasion. Ending a war after a long and bitter struggle, where the U.S is militarily stalemated is one thing. To prevent an invasion with the clock ticking like it is wold be unheard of. But I think the unusual circumstances, the fact that a lot really powerful U.S. elites see this invasion as insanely risky, makes it possible.

I don't think Blix acting as an arm of U.S. propaganda will be enough to reverse it. OK - I'm not sure of anything. No guarantees in this type of matter. But I honestly do think we have a chance. Hopefully this is not a case of optimism of the intellect and pessimsim of the will. But I'm sure we (on this list) are already doing our best in any case... Onward to Feb 15th.



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