CINDY ADAMS, NY POST - AT a private secure party in a small social gathering, George Bush the elder the senior the former president the Barbara husband put the odds of war with Iraq at: "Fifty-fifty." I wasn't present. I thus am not bound by any off-the-record atmosphere. I therefore report what one invitee with the big ears and big mouth subsequently reported. And that is that President Bush the First also said: "I'd guess there is no war."