The Herald (Glasgow) January 30, 2003
More a damp squib than a smoking gun 'New' evidence in Iraqi weapons may not stand up
IAN BRUCE
AMERICA'S promised "new" intelligence dossier on Iraqi efforts to hide forbidden chemical and biological weapon stockpiles and missile engines is likely to be more of a damp squib than a smoking gun, according to CIA sources.
The dossier, due to be presented to the UN security council next week by Colin Powell, US secretary of state, contains photographs of unexplained activity around suspected storage sites, transcripts of allegedly incriminating intercepted telephone conversations between high-ranking members of Baghdad's ruling elite, and rehashed statements by Iraqi defectors.
"The declassified information is not remotely in the same league as the U2 snapshots of Soviet nuclear missiles which sparked the 1962 Cuban missile crisis," a senior US source said yesterday.
"We simply don't have that level of hard intelligence on the whereabouts of Saddam's supposed arsenal."
John F Kennedy, the late US president, mobilised world support at the height of the cold war by having the high resolution spy plane reconnaissance shots of rocket bases outside Havana - which Moscow denied existed - delivered to the UN to make his case for a blockade of the island.
The absence of telling evidence on Saddam's hidden weaponry in either the previous US or British intelligence revelations also reflects a behind-the-scenes conflict between the CIA and its rival Defence Intelligence Agency. While the CIA is traditionally cautious in its assessments, the DIA tends towards tailoring the brief to fit political expectations.
A third factor is that neither Washington nor London has much in the way of "humint" - agents on the ground in Iraq - to support their assertions. Even neighbouring Arab countries have had problems infiltrating such a tightly-controlled police state.
The overwhelming mass of their evidence amounts to hearsay from Iraqi defectors. Even though some of these are high-ranking former officials and scientists, the underlying motives of achieving sanctuary and financial security abroad, rather than justice for their fellow-citizens, make their testimony less than 100% reliable.
Tony Blair, the prime minister, told the House of Commons yesterday that there were al Qaeda operatives inside Iraq. While there was no evidence to support Saddam's participation in the September 11 attacks on the US, there were "proven links" between al Qaeda and Baghdad now. He declined to spell out the ties.
According to the CIA, some of the fleeing terror network's footsoldiers have established new bases in northern Iraq, but inside the area controlled by the Kurds, not by Saddam. There is no proven link between them and Baghdad.
"Saddam offered Osama bin Laden sanctuary in Iraq when he was kicked out of Sudan in 1998.
"Bin Laden regards Saddam as an infidel who merely uses Islam for his own ends. The offer was treated with contempt.
"We have no evidence of collusion between Iraq and al Qaeda. That would be unlikely in the extreme," a spokesman added.
"The White House has been trying to establish some kind of link since the September 11 attacks. It just isn't there. Baghdad probably rates alongside Riyadh in bin Laden's book as another centre of self-seeking hypocrisy.
"The few hundred al Qaeda fighters who managed to get out of Afghanistan are operating with a radical Kurdish faction up along the border with Iran. They are coming under sporadic attack from both Kurds and Iranians.
"We know because we're keeping an eye on them."