> Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2003 09:31:52 -0400
> To: lbo-talk <lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org>
> From: Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com>
> Subject: [lbo-talk] U.S. recession ended in November 2001...
> Reply-To: lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org
>
> ...though 938,000 jobs have been lost since then
>
> <http://release.nber.org/july2003.html>
>
> >Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research
> >
> >CAMBRIDGE July 17 -- The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the
> >National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday. At its meeting,
> >the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred
> >in the U.S. economy in November 2001. The trough marks the end of
> >the recession that began in March 2001 and the beginning of an
> >expansion. The recession lasted 8 months, which is slightly less
> >than average for recessions since World War II.
> >
> >In determining that a trough occurred in November 2001, the
> >committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month
> >have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at
> >normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the
> >recession ended and a recovery began in that month. A recession is a
> >period of falling economic activity spread across the economy,
> >lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real
> >income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail
> >sales. The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start
> >of the rising phase of the business cycle. Economic activity is
> >typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it
> >sometimes remains so well into the expansion.
> >
> >The committee waited to make the determination of the trough date
> >until it was confident that any future downturn in the economy would
> >be considered a new recession and not a continuation of the
> >recession that began in March 2001. The committee noted that the
> >most recent data indicate that the broadest measure of economic
> >activity-gross domestic product in constant dollars-has risen 4.0
> >percent from its low in the third quarter of 2001, and is 3.3
> >percent above its pre-recession peak in the fourth quarter of 2000.
> >Two other indicators of economic activity that play an important
> >role in the committee's decisions-personal income excluding transfer
> >payments and the volume of sales of the manufacturing and
> >wholesale-retail sectors, both in real terms-have also surpassed
> >their pre-recession peaks. Two other indicators the committee
> >focuses on-payroll employment and industrial production-remain well
> >below their pre-recession peaks. Indeed, the most recent data
> >indicate that employment has not begun to recover at all. The
> >committee determined, however, that the fact that the broadest, most
> >comprehensive measure of economic activity is well above its
> >pre-recession levels implied that any subsequent downturn in the
> >economy would be a separate recession.
>