[lbo-talk] Re: US recession ended in November 2001

BradHatch bradhatch3 at earthlink.net
Thu Jul 17 21:37:54 PDT 2003


So what does this say about the republicans claim that the recession was caused by Clinton policies, because Bush hadn't been in office long enough for his policies to take effect? The recession also ended before Bush policies could have an impact. Can Clinton take credit for both the recession and the recovery? And what does this say about the general economic malaise, where even though we are in a recovery, the jobless rate continues to go up, especially after the Bush tax cuts have been in implimented?


> Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2003 09:31:52 -0400
> To: lbo-talk <lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org>
> From: Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com>
> Subject: [lbo-talk] U.S. recession ended in November 2001...
> Reply-To: lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org
>
> ...though 938,000 jobs have been lost since then
>
> <http://release.nber.org/july2003.html>
>
> >Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research
> >
> >CAMBRIDGE July 17 -- The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the
> >National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday. At its meeting,
> >the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred
> >in the U.S. economy in November 2001. The trough marks the end of
> >the recession that began in March 2001 and the beginning of an
> >expansion. The recession lasted 8 months, which is slightly less
> >than average for recessions since World War II.
> >
> >In determining that a trough occurred in November 2001, the
> >committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month
> >have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at
> >normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the
> >recession ended and a recovery began in that month. A recession is a
> >period of falling economic activity spread across the economy,
> >lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real
> >income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail
> >sales. The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start
> >of the rising phase of the business cycle. Economic activity is
> >typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it
> >sometimes remains so well into the expansion.
> >
> >The committee waited to make the determination of the trough date
> >until it was confident that any future downturn in the economy would
> >be considered a new recession and not a continuation of the
> >recession that began in March 2001. The committee noted that the
> >most recent data indicate that the broadest measure of economic
> >activity-gross domestic product in constant dollars-has risen 4.0
> >percent from its low in the third quarter of 2001, and is 3.3
> >percent above its pre-recession peak in the fourth quarter of 2000.
> >Two other indicators of economic activity that play an important
> >role in the committee's decisions-personal income excluding transfer
> >payments and the volume of sales of the manufacturing and
> >wholesale-retail sectors, both in real terms-have also surpassed
> >their pre-recession peaks. Two other indicators the committee
> >focuses on-payroll employment and industrial production-remain well
> >below their pre-recession peaks. Indeed, the most recent data
> >indicate that employment has not begun to recover at all. The
> >committee determined, however, that the fact that the broadest, most
> >comprehensive measure of economic activity is well above its
> >pre-recession levels implied that any subsequent downturn in the
> >economy would be a separate recession.
>



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