Iraqi resistance takes on a new face By Syed Saleem Shahzad
SULAIMANIYA, northern Iraq - With Saddam Hussein's sons Qusay and Uday killed in the northern city of Mosul on Tuesday, the future of the resistance movement in Iraq takes on added significance, with indications that the development could lead to a new direction in the struggle against US forces in the country.
The sons, who had a reward of US$15 million each on their heads, were killed during a raid by American troops on a house in Mosul. "Acting on a tip from an Iraqi informant, US forces mounted a six-hour operation in which they surrounded and then stormed a palatial villa in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul," Lieutenant-General Ricardo Sanchez was reported as saying in Baghdad. Four coalition soldiers were reported wounded and two other Iraqis were killed in the raid, but Saddam was not among them. The house belonged to a cousin of his, a tribal leader in the region.
According to a well-placed source in Sulaimaniya - which is just a three-hour drive from Mosul - who coordinates between US forces in Kurdistan and Kurdish peshmerga (armed forces), on April 9, Qusay and Uday travelled to Mosul, which is near the border with Syria, where they had planned to seek refuge. However, Syrian authorities refused them entry, although they did allow in Saddam's wife and two daughters.
Since then, the sons had apparently been shuttling between Tikrit and Samarah to the north of Baghdad, and Mosul to the northwest. This is now called the "triangle of resistance" against US troops. The brothers, according to the source, were rallying resistance in this region, targeting tribes in the Sunni towns which Saddam had cultivated. Qusay had been chief of the military committee of the Ba'ath Party, which gave him intimate knowledge of all of the branches of the Ba'ath Party in the region. Uday, on the other hand, had close ties with the paramilitary Fedayeen Saddam (Saddam's "men of sacrifice), which he founded in 1995 as body of young soldiers recruited from regions loyal to Saddam and answerable directly to the presidential palace.
The brothers are believed to have recently moved to Mosul to broaden resistance and reorganize it. They stayed with an uncle, but his father is the one believed to have contacted the US forces, which culminated in Tuesday's raid.
Away from the chaos and anarchy of other parts of Iraq, in relatively peaceful Sulaimaniya, located in lush mountains, experts are assessing the possible consequences of the death of the brothers on the four facets of resistance in the country. The groups are:
# Different groups from among the ranks of the Ba'ath Party who have formed small pockets. They are well coordinated and well equipped, with rocket-propelled grenades and small missile launchers. They are spread all over the north of Iraq (aka the Arabian belt) and target US convoys and installations in particular.
# Small pockets of Arab tribes who have been left out of the current interim setup and who see no hope of ever being represented. They are not well organized and launch random attacks on US forces.
# A few thousand Arabs who arrived in Iraq before the US-led invasion who have joined hands with different resistance groups. They include Afghans.
# Independent groups of gangsters who have taken advantage of the lawless situation in the country to establish fiefdoms, especially in the regions of Khals and Kirkuk in the north. They also randomly attack US troops.
Those in the first group - Ba'ath Party stalwarts - would clearly have been jolted by the deaths of their two main coordinators. This leaves only Saddam himself - wherever he might be - as the only real binding force for the remnants of the party, and it would be difficult for him to single-handedly manipulate events without the help of his two trusted lieutenants.
Coincidentally (or not?), an audio tape purportedly from Saddam urged Iraqis on Wednesday to fight US forces, saying that the war was not over. "Our will will not surrender and won't be defeated. The battle is not over yet," the tape, addressing the Iraqi armed forces, said. It was aired by Dubai-based al-Arabiya television, and dated July 20, two days before the death of his sons. Nevertheless, this element of the Iraqi resistance faces possible disintegration, or at least a serious loss in capabilities.
The fact that Saddam was not with his sons at their death is not surprising. Throughout his bloody dictatorship he adopted a separate strategy for himself, including his own hideouts, and he was a past master at covering his trail and keeping his whereabouts a secret.
Thus, even though a number of former colleagues close to him have been arrested by US authorities, they have not been able to provide information on his hideouts.
The resistance of the Arab tribes in the northern belt, meanwhile, is gradually changing shape. Virtually every day there is a declaration from a new Islamic group calling for jihad against US forces. These groups are, in fact, drawn from the tribes, who are attempting to give their struggle an ideological touch and broaden their influence.
Their position, nevertheless, is in a state of flux, and while they are a force at present, they would need to become more organized in the future.
The foreign Arab fighters are essentially a volunteer force totally dependent on their local allies for support, and for them it will likely be a case of united they stand, divided they fall once the going gets a bit tougher.
Similarly, if the US forces fail to develop a strategy to set up a strong indigenous political system, the gangsters and looters are likely to elevate themselves as warlords - much like in Afghanistan - and they may develop links to militant groups fighting against the US for reasons of expediency.
In Kurdish northern Iraq, where people felt the full brunt of Saddam's ruthless state killing machine, news of the death of his two sons will be greeted with some glee.
But the people will not be celebrating too hard just yet as, of the four streams of resistance, the emerging Islamic groups in the Arabian belt still have the potential to derail not only the peace process in other parts of the country, but also in currently calm Kurdish parts of Iraq.
Originally at
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/EG24Ak03.html
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