>If your goal is to develop a kind of predictive
>ability for events like coups, wouldn't it be simpler
>and therefore more elegant, as the physicists say, to
>simply have people on the payroll living in the
>countries of interest who spoke the language, read the
>newspapers, watched the TV shows and possesed some
>ground-level understanding of the overall situation?
You don't understand market fundamentalism. All that analytic stuff is old and statist. Markets produce objective, almost godly, wisdom.
Doug