http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A5696-2003Jul30.html
>The futures market in orange juice concentrate is a better predictor of Florida weather than the National Weather Service. The Iowa Electronic Markets outperform the opinion polls in predicting presidential election vote shares. Hewlett Packard ran a market forecasting printer sales that outpredicted any of its analysts.
Does anyone know how true or false the above is? How reasonable is the comparison of prediction accuracy in these cases? Is this like the psychics who always boast of having predicted events after the events take place?