Off the top of my head some of the earlier markets mentioned seemed like they had risk of circularity (eg oil price futures and events in the middle east), but could somebody maybe start by just explaining the terms? Which side is betting PoinD is out, which that he stays? How do you get the strength of that opinion out of the numbers provided?
DoreneC
In a message dated 7/31/2003 8:49:15 PM GMT Daylight Time, delong at econ.Berkeley.EDU writes:
> Subj: Re: [lbo-talk] Markets and the tooth fairy
> Date: 7/31/2003 8:49:15 PM GMT Daylight Time
> From: <A HREF="mailto:delong at econ.Berkeley.EDU">delong at econ.Berkeley.EDU</A>
> Reply-to: <A HREF="mailto:lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org">lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org</A>
> To: <A HREF="mailto:lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org">lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org</A>
> Sent from the Internet
>
>
>
> Currently on tradesports.com, their "Poindexter August 03" contract
> (which pays 100 if Poindexter still has his job on August 31 at 11:59
> PM EDT, and 0 if Poindexter has decided to spend more time with his
> family) has hte following order book:
>
> Bid-- 18 contracts @ 9, 10 contracts @ 1
>
> Ask-- 1 contract @ 99, 3 contracts @ 93, 1 contract @ 69, 2 contracts
> @ 62, and 100 contracts @ 20.
>
> There is thus considerable resistance to the Poindexter contract
> breaking upward of 20...
>
>
> Brad DeLong
>
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> http://mailman.lbo-talk.org/mailman/listinfo/lbo-talk
>
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