Web | Jun 10, 2003
OPINION
Iran: Nervous Nuclearisation
Pressure alone will not deter Iran from its nuclear path. The US needs to address Iran's fears and aspirations. Iran worries that even if it begins to meet Washington's demands, the Bush Administration will try to overthrow it eventually anyway. So, why deal?
GEORGE PERKOVICH
WASHINGTON: Iran may have slipped up in its secret effort to acquire nuclear weapon capabilities. The International Atomic Energy Agency alleges that Iran failed to follow proper procedures when it imported and perhaps processed uranium from China. The U.S. hopes that the ensuing crisis atmosphere will become unbearable for the Iranian government. Yet crisis and pressure do not a strategy make. If the aim is to persuade Iran to abandon interest in acquiring nuclear weapons, Washington will need a strategy to convince Iranian nationalists that their country will gain security, respect, and a prominent role in post-war politics in the Persian Gulf. Washington long has suspected that Iran's ostensibly civilian nuclear program really is a cover for bomb making. The recent public discovery of a major uranium-enrichment plant in Natanz has led to allegations that Iran must secretly have done pilot-scale testing of relevant equipment at a different, unknown facility. (See "Iran's Secret Quest for the Bomb") This would violate technical notification rules under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. The U.S. is pushing the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna to press charges against Iran later this month.
The answer to the Iranian nuclear challenge is in Iraq, not Vienna. The 125,000 troops in Iraq and President Bush's tough-minded leadership have made Iran's leaders nervous enough to look for accommodations with Washington. But the list of American demands is long. The Iranian government worries that even if it begins to meet these demands the Bush Administration will try to overthrow it eventually anyway. So, "why deal?", Iranians ask.
This is where the Iraq answer comes in. Now that the Saddam regime is gone, President Bush should seize the opportunity to convince Iran that it doesn't need nuclear weapons. Iraq was the gravest threat to Iran, followed by the U.S. and Israel. The U.S. helped Iran immensely by removing the Iraq threat and the anti-Iranian Taliban from power in Afghanistan. The administration should convince the Iranians that we can work with them -that Iran will not be a target of Israeli or U.S. military attack if it does not acquire weapons of mass destruction and threaten Israel's existence.
Iranian Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani seemed to recognize this logic in a February 2002 statement: "The existence of nuclear weapons will turn us into a threat to others that could be exploited in a dangerous way to harm our relations with the countries of the region." 1 The U.S. pronouncements will reinforce this intimidating idea, but the US also need to convince Iranians of the positive flip side of not having those weapons. This can be done through well-coordinated steps at both regional and bilateral level. Over the long run, the only way to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons is to persuade Iranian nationalists -hardliners and democrats alike -that Iran does not need these weapons either for security or prestige. A regional security conference could help on both counts.
Right now the U.S. keeps Iran on the margins of its own region -the Persian Gulf -because Tehran's radicals support some regional terrorist organizations, undermine Israeli-Palestinian dialogue, and seek to acquire nuclear weapons. As a first step, the U.S., Iran, and other Persian Gulf states should be convened in a regional dialogue on the post-war future of the Persian Gulf region.
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