Is the WMD Issue Starting to Bite?
Public Opinion Strategies/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll of 723 likely voters for NPR, released June 10, 2003 (conducted May 27-29, 2003)
Gallup poll of 1,029 adults for CNN/USA Today, released June 12, 2003 (conducted June 9-10, 2003)
CBS News poll of 841 adults, released June 15, 2003 (conducted June 12-13, 2003)
It's too early to say that the issue of the missing WMDs will hurt Bush politically. But recent polls are turning up good evidence that the public is starting to entertain real doubts about whether the Iraq war was truly worth the investment of blood and money we had to make. These are exactly the kind of doubts that could be inflamed by the continued failure to find WMDs and revelations about prewar distortions and deceptions. If that happens, the Bush administration could, in the end, suffer a serious diminution in its most important political advantage: the trust of the public on the national security issue.
Consider this finding from the recently released NPR poll. Likely voters were asked whether: (1) the Iraq war was a success and was worth the cost in lives and dollars; (2) the Iraq war was a success but was not worth the cost; or (3) the Iraq war was not a success. The replies were split down the middle between boosters and doubters of the Iraq war. Forty-eight percent said that the Iraq war was a success and worth the cost, while 48 percent said either that the war was a success, but not worth the cost (33 percent), or that the war was not a success (15 percent).
Moreover, if you look a swing-voting independents, doubts about the worthwhileness of the Iraq war are even stronger: 43 percent of this group said that the Iraq war was a success and worth the cost, compared to 55 percent who said either that its success was not worth the cost or that it was not a success. The data also show a wide gender gap on this issue. While 57 percent of men said that the Iraq war was a success and worth the cost, just 40 percent of women felt this way (55 percent of women thought either that the war's success wasn't worth the cost or that the war wasn't a success).
The CBS News poll has other findings consistent with these doubts. While 53 percent of adults in this poll say that Iraq was a threat that required immediate action, 45 percent now say that Iraq either was a threat that could have been contained (35 percent) or was not a threat at all (10 percent). The poll also finds that locating the WMDs does matter to most Americans (58 percent) and that the belief that the administration overestimated the number of WMDs in Iraq is growing (now 44 percent, up five points from two weeks ago).
The Gallup poll confirms that Americans are becoming more skeptical about Iraqi WMDs. Currently, 44 percent say that they are certain Iraq had facilities to create WMDs before the war, down eleven points from what the public believed before the war. Similarly, 43 percent say that they are certain Iraq had biological or chemical weapons before the war, down thirteen points from prewar views, and 37 percent are certain that Iraq was trying to develop nuclear weapons before the war, down eleven points from prewar beliefs.
We shall see how all this plays out in the weeks ahead. If doubts about Iraq's WMDs push the public more and more in the direction that the Iraq venture was not really worth the costs (which of course continue to mount), it indeed does mean trouble for the Bush administration. Especially if (and it's a big if) Democrats really start pressing the Bush administration on its now-well-documented prevarications on the extent of Iraq's WMDs. Stay tuned.
Chris Kromm Director, Institute for Southern Studies
Free Iraq! www.unitedforpeace.org