Transcript ABC 7.30 Report
KERRY O'BRIEN: Welcome to the program.
Many Australians have been voicing their concern about this country's front-line role in the campaign to attack Iraq, but so far the Howard Government has stood firm.
So how will it deal with another Australian who's reportedly declared Government policy against Iraq is dumb and not worth the risk?
Well, not so easily, when that opinion comes from a senior analyst in the Office of National Assessment, Andrew Wilkie, and pinned to that is his resignation.
The Office of National Assessment gathers and interprets an enormous flow of global intelligence material and briefs the PM accordingly.
Andrew Wilkie is a Duntroon graduate, a former soldier, a lieutenant colonel and has dropped a bombshell in the national capital tonight with a stinging criticism of the Howard Government's policy on Iraq.
He joins me now from Canberra.
Andrew Wilkie, is it accurate to describe you as a senior analyst with the Office of National Assessment?
ANDREW WILKIE, FORMER ANALYST, OFFICE OF NATIONAL ASSESSMENTS: Yes, Kerry.
KERRY O'BRIEN: And you were originally seconded to work there from the army back in '99.
ANDREW WILKIE: That's right, '99 and 2000 I was seconded there as a strategic analyst in the strategic analysis branch.
KERRY O'BRIEN: And the Office of National Assessments more recently, have you been privy to top level intelligence on areas like terrorism issues and Afghanistan and Iraq?
ANDREW WILKIE: Over the last 15 months or so I've been working global terrorism and transnational issues.
Because I'm one of the very small number of ex-military people in the office, I keep across potential military problems and am called in to work in the national intelligence watch office when those crises blow up.
Hence I've worked on Afghanistan, Kosovo and I was on stand-by to work on Iraq.
KERRY O'BRIEN: Why have you resigned?
ANDREW WILKIE: Kerry, war must obviously be justified and it must obviously be the option of last resort.
I'm not satisfied that in this case it is either justified or it's been viewed as the option of last resort.
KERRY O'BRIEN: Was there a particular moment that pushed you over the edge on this decision, I mean it is a big decision.
You've walked away on a career.
ANDREW WILKIE: It's the biggest decision I think I've ever made in my life.
Frankly I don't know what tomorrow will bring for me.
Was there a particular point in time?
No it's been accumulating over many, many weeks, if not months.
Although there have been some particular incidents which stick in my mind as incidents which annoyed me very much at the time.
For example, when Colin Powell presented evidence to the Security Council some weeks ago now about links between Al Qaeda and Iraq and as far as I'm aware there was no hard evidence and there is still no hard evidence that there is any active cooperation between Iraq and Al Qaeda.
KERRY O'BRIEN: But are you satisfied that you're really in a position to know that, to know that in the face of Colin Powell and all the credibility that he might muster?
ANDREW WILKIE: Yes, we are obviously privy to a substantial flow of intelligence, of hard intelligence from the US.
We haven't seen anything to prove that there is a link between the two organisations.
And, in fact, if you just approach it from first principles, there's a lot of good reasons why there wouldn't be a link.
Unless, of course, Saddam Hussein is pushed into establishing a relationship with Al Qaeda and that's one of the things that I worry about, if there is an invasion of Iraq that that will be just one of the sorts of forces that could push him towards a closer relationship with Al Qaeda.
KERRY O'BRIEN: You wrote an assessment last September on the humanitarian implications of a war with Iraq.
What was the essence of that report?
ANDREW WILKIE: That looked at the broadest range of possible humanitarian implications.
It ... you'd appreciate that I can't disclose intelligence, particular piece of intelligence on the 7:30 Report.
KERRY O'BRIEN: Were you disturbed yourself by what you found by the assessments you made?
ANDREW WILKIE: Yes.
Yes.
I was disturbed during my research when I came to realise what a high likelihood there is of a humanitarian disaster.
Now, I offered the judgment at the time and I would stick by it that a war is likely to be short and successful, but I also offered the judgment that there's a range of activities that Saddam Hussein could take himself to cause a humanitarian disaster, to overwhelm coalition forces, to cause such an international outcry that the war would be stopped, or possibly even if he was to embark on a scorched earth policy.
Saddam Hussein is on record during the Iran-Iraq war that, when it looked like Iraq could lose that war, he said he will leave nothing of any value for the invading army.
That's how he thinks.
That's what's in his mind.
KERRY O'BRIEN: By the same token a man capable of those kind of expressions and with what everybody knows about Saddam Hussein, how do you feel about the fact that right now you could well be giving comfort and aid to use a term to Saddam Hussein ?
Are you aware, for instance, that your resignation has already been reported in Iran and one assumes that Saddam Hussein might well use your resignation for his own purposes against Australia and its position against the United States and Britain?
ANDREW WILKIE: Kerry, you're right.
But I don't believe I could stand by any longer and take no action as this coalition marches to war.
I think the interests of the thousands of people, perhaps tens or even more, tens of thousands of people or even more who could be injured, displaced or killed in a war, I think their interests is more important.
If my action today and over the next couple of days, if it can make the Australian Government rethink its position, and maybe take a more sensible approach to developing its policy on Iraq, I think it's been worthwhile.
KERRY O'BRIEN: But in the aftermath of September 11, and the fact that there are now terrorists who no longer care about how many people are killed and in fact some of whom may well have the goal of killing as many people as possible, given that Saddam Hussein is quite likely to have a substantial arsenal of weapons of mass destruction, doesn't that concern you as well in terms of potential threat on humanity?
ANDREW WILKIE: Kerry, yes, it does concern me.
But I am not saying that we walk away from Iraq.
What I'm saying is, and all I am saying, is war must be the last resort and that, before we decide to go to war, we must explore all of the other options at our disposal to disarm him.
For example, to improve the inspections, the inspections up until now really haven't been satisfactory.
They need to be given more time, more resources and more inspectors.
The sanctions could be re-engineered in such a way that more aid can come to people in Iraq who need it and industries such as the oil industry can be rebuilt.
So more wealth can come back.
I think they're the sorts of approaches we should be taking at the moment in the hope of eventually doing away with this threat.
KERRY O'BRIEN: Very briefly, Kim Jones, the director general of the Office of National Assessments has issue add brief statement.
He says, apart from deeply regretting your actions, he says that you've been a member of the transnational issues branch, been working mostly on illegal immigration and that your work ... you were not responsible for ONA's coverage of Iraq.
In other words, he's playing down your access to Iraqi issues inside ONA.
Is that a fair comment?
ANDREW WILKIE: That he's playing it down, yes.
He's doing what I would expect him to do.
I don't intend to get into an argument with Kim on this show.
He's a man I have a huge amount of respect for and one of the most upsetting things for me today was to walk in and to offer my resignation.
But I think, in fairness to me, In fairness to me I've been involved in Iraq in many ways over recent months and I've been particularly interested in Iraq over recent months because I'm on standby to go on to the assessment team for the war.
KERRY O'BRIEN: Very quickly, one-word answer, is there any political motivation behind your actions?
ANDREW WILKIE: No.
KERRY O'BRIEN: Thank you very much for talking with us.
ANDREW WILKIE: Thank you.
KERRY O'BRIEN: Because we were able to get access to Andrew Wilkie, only a few minutes before the program went to air, we had no time really to invite a member of the Government on for a response, but we'll certainly be happy to do that tomorrow night.