This may not be a popular view but I believe that there will not be a war in Iraq. Here is my reasoning.
Firstly, the most sanguinary war in American history was the Civil War, when the USA lost about a million in dead. The two world wars of the 20th century cost the USA 300,000 and 150,000, respectively. The Vietnam War claimed 57,000 lives, whose names are written on the black obelisk in Washington. Next there was the war in Lebanon, which the Americans quickly left after losing about 300 lives. In Somalia, the 18 dead were enough to send the Americans packing. Two helicopter pilots lost their lives in Kosovo because of a malfunction, which taught the Americans never to wage ground operations.
Few people remember but during the first Gulf War in 1991 George Bush Sr. said the US troops would not move to Baghdad after the Americans had lost 96 lives. Or take Afghanistan. The USA lost four men in that muscle-flexing operation launched after the Twin Towers went down in the September 11 terrorist attack. One CIA man was captured and shot by the Taliban and three other victims were killed by American bombs. It was enough to make the US special forces act with more caution than ever before. In fact it can be said that they stopped acting.
On the other hand, American bombs killed three to four thousand Afghans. The movement of the Northern Alliance was accompanied by wholesale slaughter, with 12,000-15,000 people killed during the seizure of Mazar-i-Sharif, Kandahar and Kabul. There is no Northern Alliance in Iraq that would do dirty work for the Americans.
The above prompts the question: Are the Americans prepared to welcome their boys back in coffins veiled in the US flag?
Secondly, where are the "armour bearers"? During the first Gulf War, US bombers used the Incirlik air force base and other facilities in Turkey (the overall figure is 27) as the stage airfield. But where is Turkish solidarity now?
The new Ankara authorities fear the boomerang effect of the Kurdish card played by Washington, which provides for the division of Iraq into three parts, including Northern Iraq where Kurds live. The latter will inevitably incite the separatist activity of Turkish Kurds, who have been dreaming about secession for 30 years. Besides, 90% of the Turkish population is not just "against" but "firmly against" the war in Iraq.
Thirdly, where are the allies? It appears that the governments of Tony Blair and Jose Maria Aznar did not take into account the opinion of their citizens. The British Labour Party is on the verge of a revolt and anti-war and anti-American sentiments have reached a record high level in Germany. China supports the anti-war actions of Russia, France and Germany and this foursome can largely control developments in Eurasia. The Americans are bound to see this.
The USA will most probably get what it wants and Iraq will eventually become part of the US zone of influence. This can be achieved with a few thousand of so-called inspectors and embracing monitoring and control of the Iraqi military potential. There will be a controlling agency where the USA will set the tune. But the price of this outcome of the USA-Iraq confrontation will be tremendous.
Lessons must be drawn from any battle. The next time when Indonesia with the population of 30 million or Iran with the population of 70 million find themselves in a similar situation, they will act on the new rule of geopolitics, whose birth we are witnessing. It says: One can deal with the USA only if one has nuclear weapons. Jakarta and Teheran have the possibilities to acquire this guarantee of national independence. This is why I think that the reckless desire of the Bush administration to overthrow Saddam is suicidal.
The USA is becoming a revolutionary force that is exploding the established world order, which has served us - though not always very effectively - for nearly three and a half centuries.
These developments should worry a normal American imperialist because history gave the USA a unique chance. That country, which leads the world in technological and other areas of progress, has 35% of the planet's resources and only 5% of the global population, should guard its current status-quo like the apple of its eye.