-----Mensagem original----- De: owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com [mailto:owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com]Em nome de Yoshie Furuhashi Enviada em: quinta-feira, 20 de março de 2003 03:38 Para: lbo-talk at lists.panix.com Assunto: Re: US demographics depression
At 12:48 AM -0300 3/20/03, Alexandre Fenelon wrote:
>Maybe this decrease is the result of a dramatic birth decline?
See the graphs and time series data at <http://www.prb.org/Content/NavigationMenu/Ameristat/Topics1/Fertility/U_S__ Fertility_Trends__Boom_and_Bust_and_Leveling_Off.htm>. -- Yoshie
-Thank you, Yoshie, those data points to some interesting conclusions, despite -the fact I couldn´t find information on overall mortality.
1-Decline in US birt rate: difficult to be estimated, since we have no annual results,just the graphics. My estimate is that birth rate declined from 23/1000 in the 20´s to 19/1000 in the 30´s. This results in a 5M deficit. If decrease is 5/1000, the result is a 6,25M deficit. 2-Immigration: using variation of foreign born as a surrogate for variation in net immigration, we have a deficit of another 3,000,000 people (increase of 300,000 in the 20´s vs. decrease of 2,700,000 in the 30´s). However, population of foreign born is subjected to mortality and net immigration (but not to birth rates, since its offspring isn´t foreign born) 3-Overall deficit=11M 4-The remaining are excess deaths. This incomplete data points to a excess deaths near 2-3M in one decade, depending on the exact value of birth rate decline and the effect od overall mortality increase over foreign born population.
Alexandre Fenelon