Various insurgencies seem to have concluded in and around South Asia that their activity can not be sustained, since the US launched the War on Terror. LTTE, Nepali Maoist, insurgencies in parts of India etc are now willing to negotiate and settle for autonomy. I don't know if results of referendum in Chechnya signify the similar shift. Perhaps Chris Doss could throw some on Chechnya.
Ulhas --- That's the impression I get, though it's hard to identify how much is the effect of the WoT and how much is due to the Russian military and Chechen weariness with a pointless, insane war for "independence" that hasn't done anything for anybody. They've certainly seen a lot of their funding dry up.
If Maskhadov gave a fuck about the people of Chechnya, he would stop gallavanting around Western capitals, admit that he has no influence in Chechnys beyond his own clan, and resign.