Three years have passed since Vladimir Putin became president of Russia. His popularity rating is still high, although fewer people hope that he will bring order to the country. Political analysts are saying that Putin is thus paying for his high rating by procrastinating over reforms. This will not affect the results of the presidential election of 2004 in any way.
Over the three years of Putin's presidency people's trust for him has only increased. According to the National Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM), in 2001, 70% of respondents trusted him completely, while in February 2003 this figure was already 74%. Slightly under 20% of respondents still do not trust him. The only time when VTsIOM did not publish Putin's rating for some reason was in August 2000, when the catastrophe of the Kursk took place and the president continued his rest in Sochi. This was the president's main blunder.
People are attracted by the president mostly because he is an "energetic, resolute, and a strong-willed person". Almost half of respondents said this in 2000, although only 40% of them think so now.
Not all ratings of Putin are growing, however. In 2000, his policy regarding Chechnya was approved by 21% of respondents, whereas in late 2002 this figure was only 8%. The number of people thinking that the president does not have a distinct strategy has considerably increased: from 4% to 8%. At the start of his presidential career, only 3% of people suspected him of links with corrupted bureaucrats, while at the end of 2002, 6% of respondents suspected Putin of this.
At the same time, the number of people to whom Putin's appearance appeals is increasing. In 2000, 8% of respondents thought him attractive, while this winter the number of respondents who were of this opinion was 16%. Currently, 35% of respondents describe their attitude toward the president as "liking", while at the start of his presidency this figure was 29%.
Rises and declines of the president's rating are connected with political events. For instance, after the catastrophe of the Kursk, the number of those certain that Putin would introduce order to the country decreased from 25% to 19%, and by the end of 2001 this figure was again 25%. However, this rating started to decline then until it reached 18% in December 2002. Political analysts call this fact "new anxiety".
From the very beginning, Putin's popularity has been based on people's belief that he will make the life better. The standard of living has slightly improved but not so much to make people's belief maintain these ratings at such a high level.
Vladimir Putin seldom crosses public opinion or elite groups. This is an obstacle to structural and administrative reforms. Dmitry Orlov, Deputy Director of the Center for Political Strategies, has said in his interview to "Gazeta" that Putin should devote his second presidential tenure to stricter reforms. Otherwise, industrial catastrophes will take place in Russia, and the presidential rating will decline.
Question: What has Putin been most successful with?
Dmitry Orlov: The main achievement of President Putin is the alteration of the essence of the administrative system in Russia. Back under Yeltsin, this system was aimed at reproduction of itself and catering for its own needs, but now its work is oriented to needs of economic growth.
Of course, a great administrative reform is still to come, as well as destruction of the bureaucratic machine that has remained unchanged in the provinces. However, the orientation of the administrative elite is qualitatively different today.
Question: The administrative reform is being prepared by the government. Does it manage to do it?
Orlov: I'm convinced that Prime Minister Mikhail Kasianov does not agree with the president's ideas regarding the administrative reform. When he tried to call the reform "administrative tuning" last year, he expressed his position quite openly. His current aspirations to display his fervor and readiness for reforms do not seem sincere to me. Kasianov is an inert person in this connection, and many ministers and other bureaucrats are oriented to him.
Question: What other Putin's achievements do you think are important?
Orlov: Putin managed to arrange a relatively effective government vertical, put an end to separatist spirits, and create institutional conditions for economic growth. Institutes, chiefly tax ones, serve as an effective instrument of influence over economic growth. It is clear that the structure of economic growth is greatly dependent on oil prices and post-default load of productive capacities, but the government's aspirations in this field are obvious too. Another achievement of the president is his conciliatory work with public opinion. He tries never to irritate people. A long time has passed since Russia had a leader who counted with public opinion. This policy cannot be called illiterate. After all, the government exists to satisfy people's needs.
Question: Putin's hobby horse is foreign policy. Has he gained success in this field?
Orlov: Among Putin's merits is Russia's qualitatively new place on the international arena. Now Russia is certainly a European state. President Yeltsin was viewed as some sort of "big bear" with a few democratic words and unpredictable behavior, and he was not integrated into the international system of decision-making. As for Putin, the strict bargaining he conducts on concrete economic problems corresponds to standards adopted by Europe. Putin has revived the foreign policy based on Russia's national interests. In the 1990s, we heard a lot of explanations of Russia's foreign policy, from humanist values to preservation of strategic partnership with the US. Gorbachev and Yeltsin did not think fighting for Russia's interests essential for some reason. Putin does it, and he does it skillfully. We have long needed a politician who would bargain for every single dollar. Putin is just the person.
Question: What about economic achievements?
Orlov: The president's main problem in this field is that the economy is developing by inertia. Of course, some reforms have been conducted, but the most acute problems, such as reformation of the energy sector, housing sector, Gazprom, and taxation of oil companies, are still unsolved. They are unsolved for the reason that we have mentioned as a merit: his orientation to public opinion. Besides, he does not want to strictly oppose a number of elite groups. The fact that reforms are not conducted is extremely dangerous, since it may cause man-caused catastrophes. This problem is going to become more acute by the end of the decade. So far, the president can act sequentially, but later he may be urged by concrete situations regardless of public opinion.
Question: When should reforms be started to avoid catastrophes?
Orlov: I think they should be started no later than the beginning of Putin's second presidential term.
Question: You've said that Putin does not want to quarrel with elites. How serious are disagreements between elite groups?
Orlov: This is the problem that is going to become more and more serious. Putin's team is ill-matched, and it is tolerant of the "family" group, and these facts threaten his political future. According to opinion polls, people constantly complain about people who were near Yeltsin and whom people do not want to see near Putin. Sooner or later Putin will have to respond to this challenge. However, he will need a lot of will for this, since the "family" group is very strong in the administrative and political spheres.
Question: Putin's ratings are stable and high. Does his popularity really remain so high?
Orlov: Putin is the president of hope, and this hope is beginning to gradually melt. The so-called "new anxiety" is becoming a problem for him, which is reflected in opinion polls. A recent poll conducted by the Public Opinion Foundation showed that people answer the question if their expectations from Putin's policy are satisfied in a different way. The number of those who are satisfied is only 11% larger than the number of those who aren't. About a year ago, this gap was 30%. Of course, this must worry the president. People are saying, "We believe you and trust you, but show us some concrete results after all!" sooner or later this "new anxiety" may be replaced by negative attitudes, especially is the president refrains from taking active measures. (Translated by Kirill Frolov)