The two-month gain is the best in three years. The employment/pop ration was up 0.2 point. The unemployment rate was held up by labor force re-entrants. Diffusion indexes improved markedly. Like I said, it's still only about half the long-term average, and a third what we'd be seeing in a normal early recovery, but been down so long it looks like up to me. Doug
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I think the numbers are relatively positive, but they need to be tempered:
If you look at Greenspan's "augumented" unemployment rate (where you add back people not officially in the labor force but who would take a job if offered one), it's at 9% versus 8.6% this time last year. The diffusion index came in at 48% - according to bears like David Rosenberg at Merrill, headline nonfarm payroll gains of 126k historically line up with a 55% diffusion index. make of that what you will. Wage growth is still slowing, and the rosy numbers pale somewhat when they are benchmarked not against market participants' forecasts but against what is 'typical' in the 23rd month of an economic expansion.
but definitely better than the minus signs we've been seeing.
Sami Mesrour
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