[lbo-talk] Progress of Democratic Decay: Japan

Brad Mayer Bradley.Mayer at Sun.COM
Tue Nov 11 11:27:15 PST 2003


Interesting statistical details below. It's an attempt to consolidate a new, more reactionary, political regime.

Election results are the product of the partial imposition of an Anglo-American style winner-take-all system. This is then spun as "progress" since it is represented as a "threat" to the one party rule of the LDP. But not to the program, as the DPJ is, if anything, even more devoted to "reform", i.e., accelerated plunder of the economy. After all, DPJ is mostly ex-LDPers outside of the crony loop, rightwing Social-Dems, and a host of defunct party-lets.

The idea I guess is for the LDP to be a US Republican-style party of crony capitalism, while the DPJ is a US Democratic Party type regime program supporter acting as a 'no alternative' garbage can for a welter of conflicting, incompatible groups excluded from the crony spoils (but they want some!). Both hope to fight over a growing cloud of "undecided swing voters", a politically unfocused, semi-apathetic group whose constant production by the monotonic churn of an unchanging status quo will guarantee further non-change.

That's what they hope. Things might turn out quite differently, if Japan's experience with the import of foreign political models is any guide. The original Meiji constitution (1880's) was drafted with the close advice of two German Bismarckian constitutional experts. We saw where that got them eventually. Let's see where the import of American winner-steals-all Bismarckian-Bonapartism gets them.

EXPLAINING THE ELECTION: `Floating' voters help swing balance in Minshuto's favor The Asahi Shimbun -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- http://www.asahi.com/english/nation/TKY200311110111.html

Coalition partner New Komeito, meanwhile, helps the LDP save face, exit polls reveal.

[New Komeito is basically the political arm of a huge Japan-based international Buddhist cult, Soka Gakkai, a.k.a. "Nam-myoho-renge-kyo". But they are the LDP lifeline to government, http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20031108wo01.htm and http://www.globalbuddhism.org/3/hurst021.htm. I always thought that they were an implied target in Itami's Taxing Woman films, http://vikingphoenix.com/public/rongstad/bio-obit/itami/jz-itami.htm]

Unaffiliated voters propelled Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) to major gains in Sunday's Lower House election, according to exit polls conducted by The Asahi Shimbun.

Eighteen percent of respondents claimed no party loyalty, the exit polls showed. Of these ``floating voters,'' 51 percent said they voted for a Minshuto candidate in the single-seat district, and 55 percent said they voted for Minshuto in the proportional representation constituency.

In contrast, only 25 percent of unaffiliated voters said they voted for the Liberal Democratic Party candidate in the single-seat districts, and just 19 percent in the proportional representation system.

In the three national elections since the 1998 Upper House election, unaffiliated voters comprised the second largest bloc behind LDP supporters.

But this time around there was a stronger trend toward party support.

Forty-one percent of respondents to the exit polls said they supported the LDP, while 20 percent said they backed Minshuto. Unaffiliated voters, meanwhile, comprised only the third largest bloc.

And while the percentage of LDP supporters this time around was similar to the level recorded at the time of the 2001 Upper House election, not all those supporters voted for the LDP on Sunday.

Only 73 percent of LDP supporters voted for the party in proportional representation constituencies, while 69 percent voted for LDP candidates in single-seat districts.

In contrast, 92 percent of Minshuto supporters voted for their party in proportional representation constituencies and 76 percent voted for Minshuto candidates in the single-seat districts.

Minshuto also got a boost from supporters of other parties.

In proportional representation constituencies, 20 percent of Social Democratic Party supporters, 18 percent of LDP supporters and 12 percent of Japanese Communist Party supporters cast their ballots for Minshuto.

The exit polls also revealed that the LDP would have fared even worse had it not been for the strong organizational support from coalition partner New Komeito.

In single-seat districts, a national average of 60 percent of New Komeito supporters said they voted for the LDP candidate-higher than the 54 percent who cast their ballots for LDP candidates in the June 2000 Lower House election.

In fact, the higher the percentage of New Komeito support for a particular LDP candidate, the more likely that individual was to win a seat, the exit polls showed.

But while the LDP and New Komeito are coalition partners, cooperation among party supporters was decidedly one-sided.

LDP candidates had called on supporters to vote for New Komeito in proportional representation constituencies, but that advice often went unheeded: Only 6 percent of LDP supporters voted for New Komeito in proportional representation constituencies, according to the exit polls.

Supporters of the Japanese Communist Party were more bent on keeping LDP candidates out of single-seat districts. Seventeen percent of such supporters said they voted for a Minshuto candidate in single-seat districts, according to the exit polls-a jump from the 9 percent who voted the same way in the 2000 Lower House election.(IHT/Asahi: November 11,2003) (11/11)



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