Public Opinion Watch November 13, 2003 covering polls and related articles from the week November 3-9, 2003
By Ruy Teixeira
Democrats + Independents vs. Republicans = Trouble for Bush
Pew Research Center, "The 2004 Political Landscape: Evenly Divided and Increasingly Polarized," November 5, 2003
Public Opinion Watch urges everyone to check out the just-released Pew Research Center study, "The 2004 Political Landscape." While the data have to be reviewed carefully -- as Public Opinion Watch shows below -- the message that shines through should be profoundly disturbing to the Bush reelection team and the GOP in general.
This is because their data show clearly that the political views of Democrats and independents are converging on one another and pulling away from the Republicans. In other words, it's not just that Democrats and Republicans are becoming polarized against one another -- the conventional wisdom -- but that Democrats and independents (two-thirds of the electorate) are becoming polarized against Republicans. For Republicans who are inclined to see anomalous recall elections and victories in Mississippi as harbingers of realignment, this news couldn't be more discouraging. And, for Democrats everywhere, it's very good news indeed. The Pew study shows Democrats and independents converging in their declining support for an assertive national security policy, in their increasingly negative views of their personal financial situation, in their growing worries that a prescription drug benefit for Medicare won't go far enough, and in their increasingly skeptical attitude toward business. In each case, Democrats and independents now hold views much closer to one another than to Republicans, who are off on their own trajectory.
Of course, translating this similarity in views into Democratic voting by independents remains a challenge, but one where Democrats start with the advantage of a compatibility of views. In contrast, the Republicans have managed to isolate themselves.
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