I think that the market moves may represent the last aftershocks of the bubble's collapse more than "fundamentals" (to the extent one can ever say this). The charts from '29 and the Nikkei catastrophe seem to show similar post-collapse oscillations. Elliot wave is pretty thoroughly discredited but there are new theories which suggest that stock bubbles have telltale statistical signals and similarities.
Watch the VIX. The new theories suggest that its action should describe something like the inverse of the S+P.
Doug, have you looked at the charts of the recent Refi bubble? Some Wall Street sharpy I read suggested that the boost of liquidity from refis would start leave the market around this time. Who knows?
peace,
boddi