Rossiiskaya Gazeta November 26, 2003 MYTHS THE CENSUS DESTROYED An interview with Vladimir Zorin, Minister for Ethnic Policy By Lidia Grafova [from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html] [One of the most important findings of the census done in 2002 is that the population in Russia has not decreased by a drastic 10 million since 1989, as predicted, but by only 1.8 million. Russia continues to be attractive to immigrants, and a middle class has taken shape.]
The final results of the recent census will only be published next year, running to 14 volumes. Vladimir Yurievich Zorin, Ethnic Policy Minister and chairman of the government commission for migration policy, talks about some initial results of the census.
Question: The "Georgian topic" is currently in the headlines. Based on the provisional results of the recent census, can one say that what is going on in Georgia currently is also significant to Russia, since our country is a multi-ethnic state?
Vladimir Zorin: Sure. About 200,000 Georgians permanently reside in Russia at present. The census of 1989 showed the Georgian community in Russia numbered 130,000. Its quite significant growth in the past years shows Georgians feel comfortably in Russia. And all of them, like the Russians, are interested in seeking a stable situation in neighboring Georgia, with democratic adjustments underway and improving relations between our two nations.
Question: Do census results confirm the alarm about demographic crisis in Russia?
Vladimir Zorin: Experts had predicted the Russian population would decrease by 10 million comparing with the previous census in 1989. Fortunately, the loss has turned out to be much lower, just 1.8 million. Our population is presently 145.16 million. Russia ranks seventh in the world in terms of of population: after China, India, the USA, Indonesia, Brazil and Pakistan.
Question: However, this is mostly because of an inflow of migrants...
Vladimir Zorin: Right, 11 million migrants have arrived in Russia since 1989. All these years a positive migration balance was preserved that totaled 5.6 million. So of course, it is migrants (these are mostly our compatriots) that replenished the natural population loss by three-fourths.
Question: As is known, "natural loss," i.e. the death rate's prevalence over the birth rate, is manifested in Russia since 1992. Is it because exactly at this time most Russians were cast below the poverty line?
Vladimir Zorin: The social upheavals of the last decade also played a part, sure. But this is by no mens the key or the only reason. Recently, I read in a book by political analyst Victor Perevedentsev that, as it turns out, scientists had forecast demographic crisis as far back as in the early 1960s, because the birth rate went sharply down already that time.
Question: UNESCO experts think the population of Russia will almost halve by the mid-21st century, to 97 million.
Vladimir Zorin: Hopefully, we will not allow this. The birth rate grew in the last three years, the mortality rate among children under a year old decreased and the number of marriages is rising. Besides, in spite of all its economic troubles and instability of legislation, Russia continues to be attractive for migrants. And by the way, it takes third place in the world in admitting migrants after the USA and Germany.
The census showed 1 million foreigners permanently residing in Russia, as well as 40,000 people with dual citizenship. You know, these figures made me glad. While human rights advocates used to fight to make Russia open its borders - to let out those who wanted to leave - the new laws on citizenship and the legal status of foreign citizens are now accused of complicating the procedure of immigration in Russia for those who would like to live here.
Question: However, thousands of people, as before, want to leave Russia.
Vladimir Zorin: Right. To my regret I must note that, for example, only 600,000 of 840,000 Russian Germans are left, and 230,000 Jews of 540,000, or less than half. But there are other ethnic groups whose numbers have risen by 50% or even 100% in the last 13 years. For example, the number of Armenians grew to 1.13 million from 530,000, the number of Azeris has risen to 620,000 from 340,000, and the Ingushetians has risen from from 220,000 to 410,000.
Question: What's the number of Chechens?
Vladimir Zorin: Ninety thousand Chechens lived in Russia in 1989 and currently they number 1.36 million.
Question: Excuse me, but it is hard to believe that 1 million people live in what we are told is a burned-out republic. Visiting Chechnya, I met people on more than one occasion who said no one in their villages had even heard anything about the census. Besides, hundreds of thousands of Chechens were killed in war...
Vladimir Zorin: Sure, there was no question in the census about those killed. As for the number of Chechnya's residents, even if there are some overestimations, no doubt they are compensated by the Chechens in other Russian regions who live there without registration and who therefore did not want to fill in the census forms. The total figure, I think, is quite credible.
Question: What myths did the census destroy?
Vladimir Zorin: Chiefly xenophobic myths. For example, the myth of a Chinese invasion. Five million Chinese were believed to live in Russia, while the census showed they are just 35,000. Another myth: immigrants were believed to take away Russians' jobs. Well, 530,000 foreigners working in Russia amount to just 0.7% of all workers in the Russian economy. Just 23% of foreigners work in trade and in the services area, while 77% work in construction, agriculture and other spheres of no prestige where locals are not employed. So the idea that all migrants are hucksters in market places is extremely primitive. Let alone that prices would soar if those who bring goods to our marketplaces suddenly left.
Question: Is it true that urbanization has slowed down?
Vladimir Zorin: Yes, in Russia, like in most countries around the world, people stopped moving to towns from the country. Villagers make up 27% of the population, and urban residents 73%. One-fifth of all Russians live in cities with a population of over a million. There were 12 such cities in Russia n 1989, and now there is one more, Volgograd. The remaining are: Moscow, St. Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Samara, Nizhny Novgorod, Omsk, Kazan, Perm, Rostov-on-Don and Ufa.
More boys than girls are now being born. However, among people over 33, women outnumber men by 10 million. It is interesting that the number of women who indicated they are married is 65,000 more than the number of men considering themselves married. Women's level of education is higher than men's.
Question: Would you explain this contradiction: it was believed there are about 20 million Muslims in Russia, while the census appears to show they number just 14.5 million.
Vladimir Zorin: The census did not find out about religion. The figure of 14.5 million is derived from the numbers of the peoples that historically adhere to Muslim traditions. However, I believe statistics are of no great importance in this case. Even if the Muslims number not 20 million, nor 14 million, but just 1 million, like for example the Buddhists, the main thing is that people of different faiths could freely and openly perform their rituals and traditions. So I cannot tell you the exact number of Muslims in Russia, but I know that about 7,000 mosques have been built in Russia over the past years, while they had been but a few before.
Question: How many different ethnic groups are there in Russia?
Vladimir Zorin: The Russian Constitution, which I remind you will be 10 years old in a couple of days, permits ethnic self- identification. Well, there are presently 160 indigenous ethnic groups in this country (it was 126 peoples in 1989). There are few countries in the world that could boast of such rich cultural diversity.
What makes me glad is that in spite of all troubles of our business, 1 million of the polled Russians called themselves employers and 2 million called themselves businesspeople; 400,000 said they live on dividends from investments, and 200,000 on income from leasing accommodation and other assets.
Overall, studying the census results I was seeing it for myself that Russia already had its own middle-class and that we live in a country with a new quality of life.
Translated by P. Pikhnovsky
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