Friday, November 28, 2003
Record October exports reinforce strong Thai outlook
Reuters Bangkok, November 28
Thailand reported record export growth in October with a 16.7 per cent annual jump to $7.30 billion, outperforming the average expectation of a 15.1 per cent rise by seven analysts polled by Reuters.
"Another healthy trade volume. Another solid month consistent with the optimism for the growth outlook going into next year," said economist David Cohen at MMS International in Singapore.
Bank of Thailand (BOT) chief economist Atchana Waiquamdee told a news conference exports could be even higher in the next few months as economies were improving in the United States and other major developed countries.
"Monthly exports will continue to grow in the coming months as the US economy is improving," Atchana said.
Atchana said the growth of Thai exports to the United States was flat in the first 10 months of this year due to sluggish demand, even though overall export growth was 15.5 per cent.
Analysts attributed the robust October exports partly to higher seasonal output as Thai factories opened longer hours to fill foreign orders for Christmas.
The BOT also reported high industrial production growth and rises in private investment and factory capacity utilisation in its monthly report.
"Economic activities in October were surging on all fronts, namely consumer spending, manufacturing and exports," Atchana said.
The manufacturing production index rose 12.7 per cent during the year to October against a consensus of 10.4 per cent and a revised 11.3 per cent during the year to September and a 10.1 per cent rise for October 2002. The percentage rise was not seasonally adjusted.
The BOT said in a statement the private consumption index registered high growth rate of 5.1 per cent in October, which reflected an acceleration from September, when there were extra holidays during an Asia-Pacific summit. The central bank said average industrial capacity usage rose to 69.1 per cent in October from an adjusted 65.2 per cent in September and 62.9 per cent in August.
"The strong export data confirm our expectations that we should see a pickup in private investment soon as some Thai plants move to expand capacity for the first time since the 1997 crisis," said economist Usara Wilaipich at Standard Chartered.
Earlier this week, a Finance Ministry official projected gross domestic product would expand 6.4 per cent in 2003 and accelerate to 7.5 per cent growth in 2004.
Growth estimates from the seven analysts polled by Reuters ranged between 6.3 per cent and 6.5 per cent for 2003.
© Hindustan Times Ltd. 2003.