> I'm curious about what the current research says about social
> indicators relating to economic downturns. We've all seen the stats on
> layoffs and unemployment, but what kind of other social and economic
> measures are there that indicate how people are reacting to bad
> economic times? How about the news about increases in drug use? Gang
> activity? Coffee sales at Starbucks?
>
> Chuck0
Hmmm, I have a pet notion, which may be utter nonsense, that in economic downturns banks flog credit cards harder. About a year ago it seemed as though I was getting one of those "pre-approved" things in the mail about once a week. In a downturn, business investment in plant and equipment goes down, so banks are writing fewer of those loans and need to fight for share in the consumer debt market, perhaps? It's a theory, anyway. More seriously, given the fact that consumer spending drives this economy, does anyone systematically track numbers related to consumer debt as indicators of economic distress or well-being? Number of new accounts opened, percentage of accounts delinquent, average length of time delinquent, percentage of accounts maxed out, number and percent of accounts written off, that sort of thing? A set of indicators related to consumer debt, issued monthly or quarterly, might flesh out the picture you get from the employment numbers.
Jacob Conrad