-----Mensagem original----- De: lbo-talk-admin at lbo-talk.org [mailto:lbo-talk-admin at lbo-talk.org]Em nome de uvj at vsnl.com Enviada em: sábado, 11 de outubro de 2003 23:47 Para: lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org Assunto: [lbo-talk] (no subject)
How many Asian nations depend on agricultural exports? Not many. Exports of agricultural goods are a small part of Indian exports and India's exports are only about 10-12% of the GDP. Most Asian nations export manufactured goods and services.
-You´re right...that´s why Asia is doing well as compared with South America, -on the other hand, Asian export oriented economies have been suffering from -a certain degree of unstability in the last years. On the other hand, China -and India were successful in (1) ignoring international regulations on -intelectual properties and (2)keeping their internal markets relatively -closed, while benefiting most from exports. -Vietnam is dependent on agricultural exports. It´s interesting to see -that external trade in India is so small. On the other hand, China exports -are 35% of GDP. I think this make China more vunerable than India to the -oscillations of external market.
High food prices is the programme of Indian Kulaks.Vast majority of India's rural poor don't have any surpluses to sell. Either they are farm labourers working for a wage or their farms are so small and unproductive that they don't have any surplus food to sell. I suppose Brazil has plenty of land to cultivate, unlike China and India.
-Hmmm....good information. So how does India feed their urban population? -You´re right on arable land in Brazil. We have rural employees in Brazil -too, I don´t know how is the % of rural population in this situation.
Many Asian nations seem to have too much of hard currencies; they don't know what to do with it !
-It seems they need them to avoid speculative attacks against their own -currencies. Actually those reserves are helping the USA with those -monetary expansionist policies (print dollars at will and there will -be always a country eager to retain them...). The question is: why -we need dollars? Why Brazil and India must use dollars for trade, -instead of respective currencies, or some kind of Asian/South America -common currency?
Profits depend on profit margins and volumes sold. Can you not sell large quantities at low margin to generate large profits? Further decline of $ would cut into margins.
-Right, but the question here is relative prices, when you export coffe and -import planes, you place yourself in a very serious trap, because prices -of coffe will decline in relation to planes. The same thing is probably -right for cheap manufactures in relation to high tech ones. There is also -another serious aspect. While merchantilism is a good strategy, it is -not feasible for Third World as a whole, since external trade is a zero -sum game. If many countries of Third world start a export effort, the -result is a race to the bottom.
But China's FX reserves are $350 bn plus. India's FX reserves are $88 bn. That gives you relative autonomy in foreign policy, e.g. on Iraq.
-As far you´re able to keep you currency protected from market fluctuations -and your (HUGE) internal markets protected from external competition, -you´re correct (don´t remember China and India entered WTO only a few -years ago- China in 2001- India in late 90´s?). And the excessive -dependency on exports to USA can actually weaken their external policy. -Didn´t China voted for US colonial administration in Iraq? And Brazil -had US$70 billion in reserves by 1998. We lost half of them in a few -months...that is what happens with countries opened to speculative -capital, and both China and India will be pressed to achieve this kind -of openess.
Alexandre
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