On October 21, The New York Times reported that Treasury Secretary John Snow projected that the economy will generate two million additional jobs, about 200,000 per month, before next year’s election. This new number is a huge retreat from the administration’s previous projection made when it was selling its tax cuts. In February the Council of Economic Advisers projected 344,000 per month job growth starting in mid-2003 if the tax cuts were passed and roughly 250,000 jobs created per month without the tax cuts.
Monthly job creation of 200,000 and maintaining unemployment at its current level is far from a satisfactory economic performance. It takes 170,000 new jobs each month just to provide jobs for an expanding population and workforce and 300,000 new jobs each month to lower the unemployment rate by one percentage point over the course of a year.
Bush Administration’s tax cuts falling short in job creation
The Bush Administration called the tax cut package, which took effect in July 2003, its “Jobs and Growth Plan.” The president’s economics staff, the Council of Economic Advisers (see background documents), projected that the plan would raise the level of growth enough to create 5.5 million jobs by the end of 2004—344,000 new jobs each month, starting in July 2003. Last month, September 2003, the jobs and growth plan fell 287,000 jobs short of the administration’s projection. The cumulative shortfall since July 2003—the amount by which the projected jobs exceeded actual job growth in August and September—is now 672,000.
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