The So-Called Bush Bounce
Ipsos/Cook Political Report poll of 1,001 adults, released October 10, 2003 (conducted October 7-9, 2003
Frank Newport and Lydia Saad, "Bush Job Approval Up Despite Iraq, Economy," Gallup Organization, October 14, 2003
Princeton Survey Research poll of 1,004 adults for Newsweek, released October 14, 2003 (conducted October 9-10, 2003)
Washington Post/ABC News poll of 1,000 adults, released October 14, 2003 (conducted October 9-13, 2003)
Mike Allen and Claudia Deane, "President Rallying Support in Polls," Washington Post, October 15, 2003
Is Bush bouncing back? You'd think so, from coverage in the media, including the October 14 story in the Washington Post, "President Rallying Support in Polls." But there are several problems with this story line.
First, is it really a "bounce" or "rally"? That terminology implies his poll ratings are going up, but the evidence on this is mixed. Only the Gallup poll has an actual increase in Bush's job approval rating, from 50 percent for September 19-21 to 55 percent for October 6-8 and 56 percent for October 10-12.
Other polls tell a different story. The Newsweek poll has Bush's approval rating declining from 52 percent for September 25-26 to 51 percent for October 9-10. Note that the latter Newsweek poll was taken exactly in between Gallup's two polls that had Bush at 55 percent and 56 percent approval. The Ipsos/Cook Political Report poll also has Bush's approval rating declining from 55 percent for September 16-18 to 51 percent for October 7-9. And, again, the dates of the later Ipsos poll are close to those of the two later Gallup polls, especially the first one.
And here's the kicker. The Washington Post's own poll (remember the headline about Bush "rallying support"?) has Bush's approval rating declining from 58 percent on September 10-13 to 54 percent for September 30 to 53 percent for October 10-13. And, once more, the dates of the later Post poll are close to the dates (actually a little later) than the dates of the Gallup polls.
So what's going on? The Washington Post's own data show a slowdown in Bush's rate of decline, which you could stretch into a temporary stabilization of Bush's approval rating, if you chose to treat the 54 percent and 53 percent readings as about the same. But "rally" or "bounce"? That's really pushing it.
And speaking of "pushing it," Public Opinion Watch has his suspicions that what's really going on is that the Bushies got a few good readings from the Gallup folks and went into spin overdrive pushing their story that the president has bounced back. Check out who was quoted and cited in the Washington Post story about Bush's "rally": (1) unnamed Bush aides; (2) Bush himself; (3) Ken Mehlman, the Bush-Cheney campaign manager; (4) Representative Deborah Price, chairman of the House Republican Conference; (5) Matthew Dowd, the RNC pollster; and (6) Nicolle Devenish, the Bush-Cheney campaign's communications director. Only at the end of the article do we finally get a critical quote from a Democrat, Edward Markey of Massachusetts.
Chalk one up for the Bush propaganda machine-especially since they managed to make headway with the "Bush bounce" storyline when most other data from these polls, including the Gallup polls, suggest intensifying political problems for the GOP. Consider these data from Gallup.
While Gallup measured Bush's approval rating as going up, they also measured Bush's approval ratings on the economy (42 percent approval and 55 percent disapproval), on foreign affairs (49 percent approval and 49 percent disapproval) and on the situation with Iraq (47 percent approval and 50 percent disapproval) as the worst of his presidency. His favorability rating, while higher at 60 percent, is also the lowest of his presidency.
The Gallup data also show just 22 percent rating the economy as good or excellent, one of the worst rating of his presidency, and only 42 percent saying that the situation in Iraq is going well, the lowest level of the year. Finally, sentiment has become more negative about whether Congress should authorize the additional $87 billion for Iraq and the war on terror, moving from 51 percent against and 46 percent for to 57 percent against and 41 percent for.
In the Newsweek poll, Bush's approval ratings on foreign policy are 45 percent; on Iraq, 44 percent; on taxes, 43 percent; on the environment, 43 percent; on the economy, 38 percent; and on health care, 34 percent. And on whether Bush should be reelected or not, 44 percent say they would vote to reelect him, but 50 percent would not-worse than where Bush was two weeks ago before the beginning of this so-called bounce.
The Newsweek poll also finds that, at this point, more Americans (37 percent) think that the U.S. action against Iraq will increase the risk that large numbers of Americans will be killed or injured in future terror attacks than believe (25 percent) that risk will decrease (30 percent say the Iraq action will make no difference). Moreover, by 49 percent to 39 percent, the public now thinks that the administration misinterpreted or misanalyzed intelligence reports about Iraq's WMDs and, for the first time, as many Americans now believe the administration purposely misled the public about Iraq's WMDs to build support for war as believe they did not. The Washington Post poll finds Bush doing worse than a month ago in terms of support for his reelection. More (47 percent) say they that would vote for the Democratic nominee than say they would vote for Bush (46 percent). The number who say the war in Iraq was worth fighting also fell seven points, to 54 percent, in the same time period and the number who say the number of military casualties in Iraq is unacceptable rose four points, to 59 percent, the highest level since the war began.
So, if this is what it looks like when Bush is "bouncing back," it could be pretty grim for the GOP when he starts sinking again.