> Abstract
> We present an algorithm for determining the winners of United
> States presidential elections, based on the previous experience of the
> major party candidates for President and Vice President. The algorithm
> correctly determines the winner of each of the 54 U.S. presidential
> elections between 1789 and 2000. Our algorithm predicts that President
> George W. Bush and Vice President Richard B. Cheney will win the 2004
> election unless:
> 1) the Democratic nominee for President is Howard B. Dean,
> 2) the Democratic nominee for President is Wesley K. Clark and the
> Democratic nominee for Vice President has been Vice President for at
> least two years, a governor for at least five years, or a U.S.
> Representative for at least five years,
> 3) the Democratic nominee for President is Richard A. Gephardt and
> the Democratic nominee for Vice President is a banker, a college or
> university chancellor or president, or the child of a U.S. Senator, or
> 4) the Democratic nominee for Vice President is Albert A. Gore, Jr.
> or John D. Rockefeller, IV, and the Democratic nominee for President
> has not been divorced, has not been a special prosecutor, and is a
> Protestant, Deist, or Catholic.
> Although any of the currently declared Democratic candidates for
> President could, in theory, win in 2004 if they carefully choose their
> vice presidential candidates, in practice it would be difficult for
> many of them to find candidates for Vice President with the right
> combination of governmental and non-governmental experience.
It's really fun to imagine a liberal pragmatist trying to calibrate his or her vote _just so_. "If I vote for Dean, and Gephardt gets it, then I'll have to wait to see if he'll pick a banker before I can decide if he's "viable"ir not..."