[lbo-talk] U.S. Economy Grew 7.2% in 3Q, Fastest Pace in 20 Years

Brad Mayer Bradley.Mayer at Sun.COM
Thu Oct 30 09:53:51 PST 2003


How about doubting U.S. economic statistics, especially from the Commerce Dept.? Doesn't "feel" like 7% growth here in S.V. Do these statistics distinguish between multinationl activity and the domestic U.S. economy? U.S. corp Intel is expanding great guns - in China. And don't even mention India..I'm moving there :-)

CNBC reports Winnebago is expanding production like all getout, though. Spike in Temp workers?

And a single Q is no evidence of a sustainable trend. Given the continuing fragility of financial and credit situation, and the prospect that economies like China may be entering a period of cyclical slowdown, I wouldn't be in a hurry to revise the secular stagflationary perspective.

-Brad Mayer

Dwayne Monroe wrote:


> [How should this news be interpreted? Does it
> indicate a sustainable trend or is it an interesting
> effect of non-sustainable activity (such as purchases
> spurred by tax refunds and home re-financing)? DRM]

It is a sustainable trend, one which should prompt those of who have been anticipating a long period of economic stagnation to reconsider our analysis.

Here is another indicator that shows how strong the economic recovery is proceeding: My father works for one of the largest national trucking/shipping companies. He told me the other day that his company experienced the strongest third quarter that the company has seen in 17 years. This means that manufacturers are shipping lots of product. He tells me that this indicator is usually a good indicator of what will happen in the general economy in six months to a year.

And on the employment front, I've noticed a big increase in the number of jobs being advertised in the past month.

<< Chuck0 >>

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