>I'm no economics wonk, but I wonder about the logic of this: isn't
>it possible to have 4-5% economic growth without any domestic
>job growth? Increase productivity and labor hours for existing
>workers, farm out more and more jobs overseas, and the economy
>could sputter along with minimal job growth, couldn't it?
No, for two reasons. Even in the Golden Age, when productivity growth was strong, there was Okun's law, which said that it took growth of 3.5% or more to bring down unemployment. 4-5% would be well above that level, so that kind of growth without job growth would be truly unprecedented. And second, there's no way the economy could sustain present levels of consumption with no job growth. As it is, consumption is being boosted by heavy use of home equity credit. That can't go on forever, though how long it can is beyond my powers of prognostication. Probably longer than we think, but no forever.
Doug