09/05/03 Newsmax.com
Dean's Big Mo By John Leboutillier
Howard Dean - for all intents and purposes - is the Democratic nominee for president in 2004.
Yep, 'tis true.
Amazingly, this former governor of a tiny, liberal, northeastern state has literally come out of nowhere and blown his competition - and the Democratic establishment, as well - right out of the water.
Dean has done something no one has ever done before: gone from dead last to an overwhelming front-runner before one caucus or primary vote has even been cast.
He has done what other previous unknowns such as Jimmy Carter did - but without the actual victories in Iowa and New Hampshire that propel a candidate into the top tier of candidates.
His surge is so remarkable that other candidates - including the much better known figures such as Senators Joseph Lieberman and John Kerry - are repeatedly questioned about Dean and how to defeat or stop Dean. Believe me, the very last thing a candidate wants to answer is a question about one of his rivals!
How has Dean pulled off this remarkable feat?
By tapping into a deep-seeded anger inside Democratic primary voters.
This is an anger over the War in Iraq on top of what they perceive as 'dirty dealings' in the Florida recount.
Democratic primary voters tend to be the most committed, the most passionate - and the most liberal in their party. (Similarly, inside the Republican Party the primary voters are usually the most conservative.) And these liberals have opposed the way President Bush - with the support of the Democratic leadership in Washington - unilaterally launched us into the War in Iraq.
Howard Dean is the only Democratic candidate who from the start was against this war. He has never wavered in his opposition - not just to the war but the flip-flopping over their support of the war - by John Kerry and Richard Gephardt
As the war as turned into an occupation with a steady drumbeat of American deaths, no WMD found, dubious intelligence used to justify the war in the first place, and now huge car bombings resulting in horrific death, Howard Dean has surged into first place in Iowa and New Hampshire.
In the process he has rendered his three chief competitors - Gephardt, Liebeman and Kerry - as single digit candidates desperate now to tear down Dean.
The former Vermont Governor has the Big Mo right now. He is rolling in cash - much of it raised for the first time by a presidential candidate over the Internet - and has time on his side. Let me explain: in the 'old days' of politics, Iowa came in late January followed a week later by New Hampshire. The primary process then lasted until the first Tuesday in June. Thus candidates had a long time to gain momentum - or to lose it. The four-month process allowed these candidates to be tested, to raise money and to become known nationally.
But all that has now changed. The Democratic National Committee has changed their rules and compressed the whole process into five weeks. By March they will have their nominee.
So Dean, by already surging ahead in the two key early contests - Iowa and New Hampshire - has harnessed this new selection process to his overwhelming advantage.
And because his anger over Iraq and the Washington DC establishment mirrors his party's primary voters' anger - and because no one can possibly believe that Iraq is going to calm down in the next few months - Dean really has it all going his way right now.
The pompous Kerry, who 'announces' today after campaigning for nine months, is flummoxed over Dean's popularity. Lieberman, full of himself after the 200 VP run, keeps doomsaying that Dean will lead the Democratic Party down to a massive defeat to G.W. Bush next year.
Well, November 2004 is still a long way away. First comes the nomination. And Dean is running away with it.
On another day we will analyze Bush vs. Dean.
But one thing is certain: always expect the unexpected.