"The GOP would point out -- and they would be right -- that the approval rating in the autumn before an election is not a good predictor of how the election will turn out," said CNN poll analyst Keating Holland, pointing out that Ronald Reagan's approval rating was in the 40-percent range in fall 1983, a year before he was re-elected in a landslide.
"This poll may not have predictive value, yet [it could] still show that the president is in trouble. Fifty percent is not trouble yet, but if [Bush] keeps slipping, it might be."
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